Some data, such as President Biden Visits (CNN):
Macro indicators:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed’s first NFP benchmark measure (pink), civilian employment (beige), linearly interpolated real wages and salaries deflated by national chain CPI (sky blue ), GDP (red), coincident index (green), everything in the logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed (1), (2)and the author’s calculations.
Most indicators are trending upwards according to the latest available data. Civilian employment is the only one to experience a lateral trend; however, this discrepancy also occurred at the national level and is likely primarily attributable to population underestimates.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is about 0.8 points lower than the nation as a whole.
Figure 2: Unemployment rate in Wisconsin (blue) and the United States (black), both in %. Source: BLS.
This is about the same percentage point difference found on average, so one might infer that Wisconsin is doing the same thing, cyclically speaking, as the country as a whole.
Real wages are now higher than at the NBER peak of 2020M02.
Figure 3: Wisconsin average hourly wage in $ (blue), in 2023 $ (tan). Deflation using chained CPI. The NBER has defined the peak to trough dates of the recession for the United States in shaded gray.
Deflation is implemented using the chained CPI. Real wages are still higher than at the NBER peak if we use the official CPI measure.
Finally, the CNN article notes concerns about inflation. Although we do not have inflation data for Wisconsin, we do have data for the Northeast Central subregion, which includes Wisconsin.
Figure 4: Cumulative increase in CPI since January 2021 in the Northeast Central (blue) and the United States (black). Central-North-East seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13. Calculations using logs. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
Cumulative inflation is about the same in the Central-Northeast region as in the country as a whole (although as noted somewhere elsefood inflation in the Centre-East-North compared to the whole is slightly higher).
Finally, on a higher frequency note, the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims Weekly indicator of economic conditions (ECI) reports that for the week ending April 27, 2024, Wisconsin is growing 1 point faster than trend, while the entire United States is growing 0.29 points slower than trend. tendency.
