The DWD released preliminary May employment figures on Thursday (h/t James):
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (teal), Wisconsin economic outlook forecast for May (red), all in thousands, its Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
We are on track for nonfarm payroll employment compared to the May 24 forecast, according to DWD/BLS. The Philadelphia Fed’s anticipated core index is slightly below the official level (0.4%, 11,500) for April, keeping in mind that the actual core index (as opposed to extended forecasts) is ‘extends until December (0.3%, 7,900).
For non-agricultural private wage employment, there is no advance reference check. However, I can use the (seasonally adjusted) changes in net employment gains from Business Employment Dynamics to compare to quarterly private NFPs.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (black), cumulative net employment gains from business employment dynamics repeated in third quarter 2022 (blue), Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast for May (red), all in thousands, according to the private NFP average for the second quarter of 2024 for April and May. Source: DWD, BLS, WI DoR.
Finally, for the series on civilian employment (measured relatively imprecisely) based on household surveys, the reality is lower than forecast by 0.3%.
Figure 3: Wisconsin Civilian Employment (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast for May (red), all in thousands, its Source: DWD, WI DoR.
