From DWD today:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin economic outlook forecast for May (gray), all in thousands, its Source: DWD, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Wisconsin Department of Human Resources.
Figure 2: Wisconsin Civilian Employment (black), Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast for May (red), all in thousands, Source: DWD, Wisconsin Department of Human Resources.
According to the CES employment count (more reliable than the CPS household count at the state level), employment is exceeding the DoR’s June forecast.
Below I present the latest data on Wisconsin’s macroeconomic aggregates.
Figure 3: Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark NFP (pink), civilian employment (beige), real wages deflated by national chain CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logarithms 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed (1), (2)and the author’s calculations.
So by most measures, Wisconsin’s economy is doing well overall. However, recent media reports have focused on a gloomy mood (Nickette/Bloomberg):
…a consultation of Bloomberg News/Morning survey This month, 62% of Wisconsin voters believe the state’s economy is on the wrong track, and 72% believe the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction.
See also Policy. In contrast, the modal response on the state of the economy appears to be rated as “good.” According to a Marquette Law School poll conducted June 12-20:
Figure 4: Percentage of voters likely to answer the question “How would you describe the current state of Wisconsin’s economy?” Source: Marquette Law School Survey.
There is, however, a partisan divide on this point.
Figure 5: Percentage of voters likely to answer the question, “How would you describe the state of Wisconsin’s economy these days?”, by party affiliation. Source: Marquette Law School Survey.
Addendum, 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time:
Real wages continued to rise through May.
Figure 6: Average hourly wages for all Wisconsin workers, in 2017-2012 dollars (blue). Deflated by East North Central CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. NBER-defined peak-to-trough recession dates are shaded. Source: BLS, NBER, author’s calculations.
