The list of witnesses is coming to an end. Final declarations could arrive as early as Tuesday. Next, a Manhattan jury will convene in the first criminal trial of a former president to determine whether Donald J. Trump will campaign this fall as a convicted felon.
The political impact of one of the most important jury deliberations in the country’s history is far from predictable.
“Who knows?” said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who has been a longtime Trump critic. “The first casualty of today’s ‘I’m right: you’re bad’ politics is institutional credibility. We are no longer in a policy of accepting impartial facts.”
But whether or not the verdict constitutes a political turning point, it will be a pivotal moment in the race.
The case is the only one of four indictments against Mr. Trump expected to be tried and concluded before Election Day, although charges of falsifying financial records linked to a secret payment made to a porn star do not add up. to the seriousness of the matter. indictments accusing Mr. Trump of trying to thwart the peaceful transfer of power in 2020.
There is no doubt that Mr. Trump’s base is unlikely to abandon him now. What is less clear is how swing voters or some of the traditional Democratic constituencies — younger, black and Hispanic voters — who have recently expressed less support for Mr. Biden, and have even flirted with Mr. Trump, could render a guilty verdict.
“We’ve looked at a lot of polling that indicates a good portion of voters would move away from Trump if he were convicted,” said Jim Margolis, a veteran Democratic strategist and ad maker. “I hope this turns out to be true. But if the past is only prologue, I don’t think we can expect that to happen.
Mr. Trump’s political playbook before the verdict is so threadbare as to be predictable.
His experience with multiple investigations, civil trials and two indictments has provided him with a model for how he will declare victory, in the event of an acquittal or hung jury, over a deep state that was out to get him but failed. It’s also the road map for how, if convicted, he will attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the prosecution by portraying it as a partisan sham designed to undermine his candidacy, a message he and his allies have been hammering home ever since. months.
In Trumpian shorthand, based on his previous statements, it will be a “total exoneration” if he is not guilty and “election interference” if he is found guilty.
In a statement, Steven Cheung, Trump’s spokesman, said Mr. Trump’s team would “fight and crush Biden trial hoaxes across the country.”
The Biden campaign has largely avoided speaking directly about the trial, avoiding fueling the Republican Party’s claims, made without evidence, that his administration was behind the New York case. But his political operation, which declined to comment, made a nod to last week’s lawsuit, selling shirts after Mr. Biden proposed debates stating “Free on Wednesday,” the day of the week where the trial is suspended.
But the Trump campaign, with its sense of drama — and limited travel schedule because of the trial — has planned a big rally in the Bronx on Thursday, the same day it’s possible a jury could reach a verdict, which could create a combustible situation for a country where violence has become an ugly element of the political landscape.
Mr. Trump has called some of those facing criminal charges after participating in the Jan. 6 attacks “hostages” and opened some events by playing a recording of the defendants. singing the national anthem from prison. Last week, the man who broke into former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home and bludgeoned her husband with a hammer was sentenced to 30 years in federal prison.
Bradley Beychok, co-founder of the progressive group American Bridge, which last week launched what it promised would be a $140 million anti-Trump ad campaign, said whatever verdict it is will not change its advertising strategy.
“Democrats need to be careful not to take the bait and think our job is just to tell voters how bad and evil and horrible Donald Trump is,” he said. “He is all of those things, but we need to focus on how it affects their daily lives.”
Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican strategist, described what he sees as a Trump-wins, Biden-loses situation as the trial draws to a close.
“An acquittal would vindicate him,” he said of Mr. Trump, “and a guilty verdict would martyr him — and hey, that’s how you start a religion.”
Mr. Castellanos explained that Mr. Trump’s position was rooted in his promise to upend institutions and institutional norms that many in the country believe have not served them well.
“He can grab women with the p-word, he can say of John McCain, ‘I like heroes who haven’t been captured,’ and we all think that’s the end of him, that it will hurt him.” , said Mr. Castellanos. said. “What does History tell us? He really could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. Because it’s not about him. It’s about who he’s there to stop. The reason he can eat kryptonite is because he was elected to be the hand grenade under the gate of the establishment.”
Campaigning for the presidency under the guise of a belief is unprecedented. One of the few notable cases where a politician got on the ballot shortly after conviction was that of former Sen. Ted Stevens, who narrowly lost his re-election just days after being convicted. seven counts in 2008. The race was so close that it wasn’t decided until after mail-in ballots were counted.
Yet even as this historic trial was underway, 36 percent of voters said they paid little or no attention, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College investigation into battleground states. And crucial independent voters were even less engaged, with 45 percent saying they paid little or no attention.
Mr. Margolis, the Democratic strategist, said the lack of television cameras in the courtroom was the missing ingredient.
“No live TV, no video of Stormy testifying, no shots of Trump sleeping,” he said of the woman, Stormy Daniels, whose sexual relationship with Mr. Trump, he said denied, is at the center of silence. money case. “This is one of the main reasons why the trial did not shake America.”
The Trump campaign asked voters in polls what news they followed most and the lawsuit didn’t get above 20%, according to a person familiar with the polls.
Perhaps this is why a criminal conviction could still come as a surprising surprise. The Times/Siena poll showed that only 35 percent of voters in six battleground states considered conviction very or somewhat likely.
Voters were divided on whether Mr. Trump could get a fair trial in New York, along predictable partisan lines, although about one in five Democrats thought he could not get a fair trial and about the same proportion of Republicans thought he could. A slim majority of independents thought he would not receive a fair trial.
A political cost of the trial has already been incurred for Mr. Trump: he was confined to New York four days a week for a month, which is significant when a candidate’s time is often considered the most valuable resource of the trial. ‘a campaign.
Mr. Murphy, the Republican strategist, said Mr. Trump’s daily remarks to the cameras at the courthouse — even with complacent supporters lined up behind him — have undermined the strongman image he seeks to project .
“His mark is strength. What he likes to do is be cocky in front of an adoring crowd,” Mr. Murphy said. Instead, he said, the comment made Mr. Trump look more like “an old mangy lion caught in a net.”
“The whole vibe of a caged and defeated animal,” he said, “is bad for Trump.”
