So far in July, the Bitcoin price showed positive movementbreaking out of June’s downtrend and hitting new monthly highs. While this is encouraging, it leaves investors with doubts lingering as BTC prices remain below $70,000. As the month draws to a swift end, the question remains whether Bitcoin’s price will end this month in the green or succumb to the bears once again.
How Bitcoin Price Has Changed Historically
Historical data can often be useful to investors when it comes to volatile assets like Bitcoin, as it can provide insight into future price movements. the price of BTC repeated the same trends, one of them being the four-year cycle of bull markets.
Over a shorter time frame, looking at monthly performance can also be a useful indicator of future Bitcoin price action, especially when considering the performance of the months leading up to July compared to historical data.
By using data According to Coinglass, we can see that Bitcoin’s monthly returns for the first quarter of the year remained in line with 2023’s performance. The first three months of January, February, and March were all green, just like last year.
However, in the second quarter, the price of bitcoin took an interesting turn in terms of monthly performance. Instead of sticking to previous performances, each month did the opposite of what happened the same month in 2023.
For example, in April 2023, Bitcoin has recorded positive monthly returns by 2.81%, but in April 2024 it turned negative when the price fell by 14.76%. This was the case for May and June, with an increase of 11.07% in May 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.98% in May 2023, and a decrease of 6.96% in June 2024 compared to an increase of 11.98% in June 2023.
As we enter the third quarter of the year, Bitcoin seems to be following the trend which began in the second quarter. With just one week left in July, the price of Bitcoin is already up 7.27%, compared to a 4.02% decline in July 2023.
Now, if the third quarter goes in the same direction as the second quarter, that means that July could end July 2024 in the green. Moreover, given that August 2023 saw the price of BTC closing the month with a loss of 11.29% bodes well for the price, as it could also indicate an increase in price in August.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart by Tradingview.com
