As Democrats face a presidential race against a resurgent and resilient Donald J. Trump, as well as a brutally difficult Senate map, they believe they have an increasingly powerful political weapon: ballot measures to protect the right to abortion.
Two crucial battlegrounds for the presidency and the Senate, Arizona and Nevada, are expected to bring such measures directly to voters. The same goes for other states with prominent Senate races, including Maryland and potentially Montana. And abortion rights measures are set or could be on the ballot in states like New York, Florida And Nebraskawhere competitive contests could help determine whether Democrats win back the House.
Hopeful Democrats – and worried Republicans – are keenly aware that in the seven states where abortion has gone directly to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the abortion rights camp won, in both red states like Ohio And Kansas as well as swing states like Michigan. These measures sometimes fueled a surge in liberal turnout that also helped Democratic candidates achieve victory.
So in every state where an abortion measure is already on the 2024 ballot or could still appear, Democratic candidates, state parties and allied groups are campaigning furiously alongside ballot initiatives, running ads, helping to throw money behind them and mentioning the measures in their speeches. after the speech.
In Arizona, where Democrats are trying to flip the Legislature, party candidates have gone so far as to collect signatures for the state’s ballot by knocking on voters’ doors.
“When the abortion petition initiative came up, it was obvious that I would take it with me,” said Brandy Reese, a Democrat running for the Arizona House, who said she had gathered dozens of signatures during his campaign. “I’m running as a pro-choice candidate, and you can immediately tell in people’s body language that they’re excited to hear that.”
The wave of abortion referendums — some of which are not yet officially on the ballot but most of which are gathering enough signatures to get there, organizers say — adds new unpredictability to an already upended election season by Mr. Trump’s criminal cases and heartbreaking questions. on the future of the country’s democracy.
With polls showing one majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, these measures could serve as a political life raft at a time when President Biden faces stubbornly low approval ratings and skepticism within his party. Democrats hope the ballot initiatives will increase turnout among key voters like suburban women, young people and African Americans.
“Voter initiatives are well-funded and well-organized efforts,” said Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist. “It creates a tremendous sense of energy, not only within the Democratic Party, but among voters across the spectrum.”
Party leaders echo that message.
“The momentum is on our side,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at an abortion rights event Wednesday in Jacksonville, Florida. “Think about it: Since Roe was overturned, every time reproductive freedom has been on the ballot, the American people have voted for freedom.
Beyond electoral politics, ballot initiatives regarding abortion have generated enormous interest and participation because of their direct impact on voters’ lives. In Florida, for example, a new ban on nearly all abortions in the state has cut off a critical access point to patients in the South-East. In Arizona, lawmakers this week repealed the near-total ban on abortion – but the state is now prepared to implement a 15-week ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Doctors have also expressed concern about the criminal penalties arising from these bans.
“This fear is just devastating,” said Mona Mangat, board chair of the Committee to Protect Health Care, an advocacy group that supports ballot initiatives in several states. “This is going to be devastating for practitioners and devastating for patients. »
Ms. Mangat said the restrictions could impact doctors’ willingness to move to those states to practice medicine or attend residency programs.
In Nevada, abortion is legal within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Organizers are collecting signatures to place on the ballot an amendment that would establish the right to abortion in the state Constitution. Top state Democrats, including Sen. Jacky Rosen, who faces a tight re-election fight, have signed the petition.
Rep. Dina Titus, another Nevada Democrat, said in an interview that the amendment would continue to motivate voters, especially young people, to vote, even without having to overturn far-reaching restrictions.
“We will talk about it in terms of how this will actually protect women,” Ms Titus said. “And we will use it to attract young women and young people in general to the polls, because they will suddenly realize that something they took for granted is not going to be available.”
Republican candidates and their allies appear reluctant to campaign directly against ballot measures aimed at protecting abortion rights, although some Republican Party leaders have expressed opposition. In Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine recorded a video opposed the state initiative last year, and in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the current ballot measure was too broad. “Overriding parental consent from minors is completely unacceptable,” he said at an event last month.
Some Republicans openly fear that restrictive measures like Florida’s could play into Democrats’ hands, given how abortion referendums have gone in recent cycles.
“To me, Kansas and Ohio are what everyone should be looking at,” said Vicki Lopez, a state representative from Miami who was one of the few Republican lawmakers to vote against the ban on six weeks in Florida. Voters will now decide in November whether to add abortion rights to the state Constitution, with a question known as Amendment Four. “It will be a test.”
But Ms. Lopez added that it would be a mistake to assume that “everyone who votes for Amendment Four will then vote for Biden.”
Regardless, Democrats believe they have the advantage. In A memo Last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wrote that “reproductive freedom will remain a central issue for voters in November” and that the group would “ensure that House Republicans’ efforts to ban abortion in nationally be a priority as voters head to the polls.” »
The DCCC said it has identified 18 competitive seats in the House of Representatives in states where abortion measures are likely to appear on the ballot. Republicans are trying to protect a slim majority in the House.
Money for ballot measures has flowed in from both large liberal groups and small donors. Some so-called dark money organizations, whose donors are not disclosed, have contributed millions, including the Open Society Policy Center, the Sixteen Thirty Fund and the Fairness Project. Other advocacy groups, like Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union, also contributed seven figures.
Think Big America, an abortion rights group founded by Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois, has spent considerable sums supporting abortion initiatives. After losing $1 million in Ohio last year, he has already spent $1 million in Arizona and Nevada and made what he calls a “quick investment” of $500,000 in Montana, where the question is not yet on the November ballot.
“This has the power not only to bring out Democrats, but also to ensure that people who are on the fence – undecided voters, independents, persuasive voters – come to the side that has long believed in reproductive freedom” , Michael said. Ollen, executive director of Think Big America.
In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs has directed her well-funded state political action committee, Arizona Communities United, to focus heavily on the ballot initiative.
Ms. Hobbs, who navigated slim Republican majorities in the Legislature during her first two years in office, has made flipping both chambers a primary goal for 2024, and she views the ballot measure as a central part of this effort.
In Nevada, the Biden campaign invited ballot initiative organizers to collect signatures at events featuring Jill Biden and Ms. Harris.
While delivering a speech at the state last month, Ms. Harris thanked those in the audience who collected signatures. They responded by holding up their clipboards and clapping.
“We are going to win this ballot initiative,” the vice president said. “And Joe Biden and I are going back to the White House.”
Patricia Mazzei reports contributed.
