Narendra Modi set an ambitious goal for an election that he hoped would deliver him a landmark third term as prime minister: winning a majority so stunning that his party would cement itself as the only plausible option to lead India in the years to come.
To do this, his Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, aimed to extend its deep support across the so-called cow belt in India’s populous north, while also making significant inroads in the south. country, which has been more resistant to the Hindus in the party. -nationalist agenda.
But little went as planned for Mr Modi when the election results came in on Tuesday. His party is not far from achieving its goal of winning more than 400 of the 543 parliamentary seats. It suffered such a steep fall – losing more than 60 seats – that it no longer had a majority in Parliament.
To stay in power, the powerful Mr. Modi is now forced to do something that does not come naturally to him: work with others, as part of a political coalition. This alliance, known as the National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, will face a reinvigorated political opposition, led by the Congress party, which has significantly improved its performance since the previous elections, in 2019.
Modi’s NDA alliance lost swaths of territory in these elections
The BJP’s losses were spread across the country, from Maharashtra in the west to West Bengal in the east. But Mr. Modi’s biggest setback came where it was least expected: in the northern belt, where his party was well established and where his Hindu nationalist ideology enjoyed strong support.
It appears that some of Mr Modi’s tactics have backfired in this region, perhaps because his party’s candidates there were seen as incumbents with little to offer after a decade in power. These losses, however, were partly offset by gains in parts of the south, where the BJP – as a new entrant with little historical footprint – found a better reception for its messages.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, with a population of 240 million, the BJP won only 33 seats, down from 62 in the previous election. It was in the northern state that Mr Modi inaugurated the lavish Ram temple in January, seen as one of his greatest offerings to his Hindu support base. But the BJP’s reluctance over its Hindu-first policy has discouraged many lower-caste voters, who are more concerned about issues such as unemployment, inflation and social justice.
One of the biggest surprises took place the city of Ayodhya, the site of the Ram temple. The BJP lost the seat in the city and other seats in neighboring districts.
In the important state of Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, India’s business and entertainment capital, the BJP won just nine seats, down from 23 in the last election. The party’s coalition partners suffered even more serious losses.
The vote was seen as a verdict on the brutal manner in which the BJP has reshaped the political map of the state. The BJP had used pressure from government agencies and the incentive of money and power to divide the two largest parties in the state. A faction within each of the two divided parties subsequently aligned with the BJP. The move backfired, however: in what was seen as a sympathy vote, the initial factions of both parties far outperformed the BJP’s allies.
The BJP nevertheless had some good news: it continued to expand its support in the south, where it has struggled to gain a lasting foothold. In Andhra Pradesh, it formed a strong local alliance with two secular parties, and their coalition won 21 of the 25 seats due to the unpopularity of the ruling party in the state. He won a seat for the first time in the left-dominated state of Kerala and several seats in the State of Telangana.
The NDA alliance has gained territory in the east and south
The party’s most impressive gains have been in the eastern state of Odisha. The state is part of the “tribal belt” that stretches across central India and is the only part of the country where the BJP enjoys unified support. Its relatively poor communities have been cleverly targeted by the BJP’s Hindu policies and social assistance benefits.
But the party’s gains in eastern and southern India were far from enough to compensate for its losses in the north. Now that Mr. Modi is deprived of the landslide victory he sought, the country will see how he responds. Some tensions within Indian democracy could be eased as Mr. Modi is forced to consult with coalition partners who could curb his more authoritarian tendencies. Or he could crack down more violently than ever, fearing losing even more ground to a revived opposition.
