On June 2, citizens across Mexico will go to the polls to elect a new leader, in the largest election in the country’s history.
The election will allow voters to decide on more than 20,700 positions at the federal and local levels, including 500 seats in the nation’s House of Representatives and 128 in the Senate.
But much of the focus will be on the presidential race, as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, familiarly known as AMLO, ends his term as one of the most popular leaders in modern Mexican history.
Scientist and former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum hopes to succeed AMLO as candidate of the Morena political party. But she faces competition from her conservative rival Xochitl Galvezformer senator and businessman of indigenous Otomi origin.
If Sheinbaum or Galvez manage to win the presidency, it will be a historic moment for Mexico: never before has a woman been elected president.
As Mexicans in each of the country’s 32 states prepare to head to the polls, Al Jazeera explores the issues underlying the election. What issues dominated the campaign and how does the electoral process work?
We answer these questions and more in this explainer.
How big are the 2024 elections?
About 100 million Mexicans are expected to vote in June, a record for a country that has seen voter turnout decline in previous elections.
Turnout in this year’s elections is expected to increase by about 11 million voters compared to the last presidential election in 2018.
How will the vote take place?
According to the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE), the country’s election watchdog, Mexicans will vote at 170,000 polling stations. (PDF) Across the country. A voter ID card is required to participate.
Mexico has one of the largest diasporas in the world, with more than 11 million people to live abroad. But registered voters who are outside the country can still vote online, by mail or in person at Mexican consulates.
Early voting was also allowed for people with disabilities or limited physical mobility from May 6 to 20.
On June 2, polling stations will open at 8 a.m. at the earliest and close at 6 p.m. Voters who are still in line at 6 p.m. must be allowed to vote.
After polling stations close, election officials will begin counting results, with the INE providing real-time statistics. A second count to finalize the results will be carried out from June 5 to 8.
What are the major parties?
Two main coalitions have emerged this election cycle in the battle for the presidency.
One is a conservative coalition made up of three parties, collectively titled “Strength and Heart for Mexico.” The second is a left-wing coalition led by the Morena party, called “Let’s continue making history”.
The first includes the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD).
The PRI was the dominant political force in Mexico for much of the 20th century, holding power for 71 consecutive years, often through fraud and repression. The “Strength and Heart for Mexico” coalition brings it together with the PAN, a rival conservative party that ended its streak in power in 2000.
The second coalition joins Morena – the current ruling party – with the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (Verde) and the Labor Party (PT).
Another party, the Citizen Movement, is seeking seats alone outside the two main coalitions.
Are these traditional coalitions?
Carlos Bravo Regidor, a writer and political analyst based in Mexico City, says these coalitions are a novelty in Mexican politics and demonstrate AMLO’s impact on the political landscape.
“This is an entirely new political configuration, the result of Lopez Obrador,” he said.
Regidor explained that López Obrador became so popular that his former rivals had to ally with each other to enter this year’s presidential race.
“That the PRI, the PAN and the PRD work together is such a historical aberration. For most of Mexico’s democratic history, these three parties have competed against each other,” he explained.
“It’s a testament to the impact that Lopez Obrador has had that these three parties – historic rivals who represented the right, left and center of Mexico’s political spectrum – are all running together to try to defeat Lopez’s candidates. Obrador.”
Who represents the coalitions in the presidential race?
Sheinbaum represents Let’s Keep Making History, the left-wing coalition. Galvez, his conservative rival, was chosen as the presidential candidate for “Strength and Heart for Mexico.”
Meanwhile, former deputy Jorge Álvarez Maynez is running on behalf of the Citizen Movement.
What are the central issues of the campaign?
Polls show that voters placed issues such as security, social programs and corruption among their top priorities.
The election is also seen as a referendum on López Obrador’s presidency.
Sheinbaum, his protégé, vowed to continue AMLO’s policies of expanding social programs and spearheading major infrastructure projects like the Maya Train, a controversial rail line running through the Yucatan Peninsula.
Galvez emerged as a protest candidate, promising to crack down on violence and corruption with a tough hand: she criticized Lopez Obrador for saying he would tackle crime with “hugs, not bullets.”
Although he used this slogan during his 2018 presidential campaign, Lopez Obrador expanded the role of the country’s military in enforcing domestic laws. Galvez, for her part, said she would begin to end the trend of relying on the military for public safety.
How has crime influenced the 2024 race?
The persistent violence facing the country was felt during the election season, with around 34 potential candidates killed between September and May.
Last month, two mayoral candidates were found dead in the northern state of Tamaulipas. And on May 17, gunmen in the southern state of Chiapas killed six people at a political rally, including another mayoral candidate.
Authorities blamed the killings on drug cartels and organized crime, which largely affected local races.
Who is leading the presidential race?
Most polls give Sheinbaum a commanding lead of more than 20 points over Galvez. Maynez is considered a long shot.
AMLO’s popularity is also expected to help Morena move up and down the ballot, where his coalition aims to increase its majority in the Legislative Assembly.
Why is Sheinbaum so far away?
Regidor, the political analyst, said Galvez played his role well and ran a fairly dynamic campaign. But he believes Galvez’s affiliation with the PAN and PRI parties has hampered his prospects.
“Of all the negative attributes you can think of, Mexican voters most associate them with the PRI and, to a lesser extent, the PAN,” Regidor explained.
“Xochitl could therefore not present himself as a candidate of change, because the idea of change is incompatible with presenting himself under the banner of the PAN and the PRI.”
In 2006, under the PAN presidency of Felipe Calderon, the government launched its controversial “war on drugs,” relying on a militarized approach to law enforcement.
But this strategy led to an explosion of violence without really helping to stem drug trafficking. It has also led to increasing reports of military abuses, including evidence pure and simple collaboration between security forces and criminal groups.
The PRI, meanwhile, has long been accused of corruption and oppression: from 1929 to 2000, it was the dominant force in Mexican politics.
The long-ruling party briefly won back the presidency in 2012, with candidate Enrique Pena Nieto. But corruption scandals and dissatisfaction with his neoliberal economic policies led to AMLO’s election in 2018.
“Something which helps to explain the large victory of Lopez Obrador in 2018, it is the discredit of these traditional parties. Poll after poll asks voters: who is the worst when it comes to corruption? The price. Who is the worst when it comes to violence? The price. Who is the worst at caring for the poor? The PRI,” Regidor said.
He added that the PRI’s long history has left a lasting stench in the eyes of voters.
“The PRI has become the Chernobyl of Mexican politics. It’s so toxic.
What is the legacy of the outgoing president?
Lopez Obrador has consistently been ranked among the most popular world leaders currently in power – although his election in 2018 came after two failed attempts at the presidency.
Known for his outspoken personality, Lopez Obrador has made the fight against poverty a central pillar of his presidency.
But he also pushed controversial initiatives which critics say aims to diminish the independence of the country’s judiciary and election watchdog. Additionally, he expanded the military’s role to include infrastructure projects and public security initiatives, despite concerns about human rights abuses.
His critics have also expressed disappointment at his failure to fight crime and tackle the thousands of missing persons cases in Mexico, which exceeded 100,000 under his presidency.
The majority of these cases were recorded after the country launched its “war on drugs” in 2006. Providing answers to the families of the missing was a promise Lopez Obrador campaigned on in 2018.
Why can’t AMLO run for a second term?
During his tenure, Lopez Obrador achieved something increasingly elusive in global politics: consistently high levels of popularity.
According to a survey tracking tool by the Americas Society and the Council of the Americas, AMLO’s approval, although down from an initial high of 81 percent, never fell below 60 percent.
Given this level of popularity, why can’t Lopez Obrador run for a second term himself?
The answer is simple: the Mexican constitution explicitly limits the presidency to a single term.
It’s a legacy of the Mexican Revolution, which took place after decades of rule by dictator Porfirio Díaz, known as the Porfiriato. His leadership made “no re-election” a common rallying cry.
