Russian President Vladimir V. Putin will travel to North Korea for a two-day visit starting Tuesday to meet with one of the main arms suppliers for its war against Ukraine.
As the war drags on, Russia finds itself in dire need of conventional weapons, including artillery shells, which North Korea could supply.
Here’s a look at what’s happened so far and why it matters.
What do we know about past arms deliveries?
United States first accused North Korea sold artillery to Russia as early as September 2022, seven months after the start of the war. At the time, North Korea denied the accusations.
Then, last August, the White House warned that Mr. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conduct arms negotiationsand in September, Mr. Kim visited Mr Putin in eastern Russia. Few weeks later, US officials said that North Korea had shipped more than 1,000 containers of weapons to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine. In March, officials said, North Korea sent nearly 7,000 containers of weapons to Russia.
If filled with 152-millimeter artillery shells, the containers could carry up to three million rounds, South Korea’s defense minister said. Or, if they were filled with 122-millimeter rockets, they could hold more than half a million rounds. They could also have had a mixture of the two weapons, he added. In his latest estimateMinister Shin Wok-sik last week estimated the number of North Korean shipping containers sent to Russia at 10,000.
Additionally, the White House said in January that Russia had begun launching ballistic missiles produced in North Korea. Arms control experts said fragments of the Hwasong-11A short-range ballistic missile had been found following Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities for months, notably in Kharkiv in February. North Korea could also supply anti-tank missiles and man-portable surface-to-air missiles, as well as rifles, rocket launchers, mortars and shells, South Korean military officials said. told reporters in November.
Moscow and Pyongyang deny the arms trade, prohibited by United Nations sanctions imposed on North Korea.
How important are these weapons?
The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition, in which Russia and Ukraine try to outdo each other by firing thousands of artillery shells, missiles and rockets every day. This means that any munitions supplied by North Korea help Russia maintain its advantage over Ukraine.
The Hwasong-11A series missiles, in particular, have a high degree of precision and are difficult to shoot down, experts say.
But at least some of the other weapons are considered old or somewhat ineffective. Last fall, the top U.S. military official at the time, Gen. Mark A. Milley, said he doubted it would be “decisive” when asked whether the 152-millimeter shells supplied by the North Korea would have a significant impact on the battlefield.
“Would that make a huge difference?” I am skeptical,” he declared shortly before leaving his position as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
