Still battling Israel’s external enemies on multiple fronts, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu woke up Monday to a new political battlefield at home.
THE departure This weekend, Benny Gantz and his centrist National Unity Party, which emerged from Israel’s wartime emergency government, are unlikely to immediately break Mr. Netanyahu’s grip on power. The Prime Minister’s government coalition still holds a narrow majority of 64 seats out of the 120 seats in Parliament.
But Mr. Gantz’s decision means that Mr. Netanyahu is now totally dependent on his far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners as he pursues the war in Gaza against the growing international opprobriumleaving him increasingly isolated and exposed at home and abroad.
Mr. Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, another powerful member of National Unity, also left Mr. Netanyahu’s small war cabinet. They are both former military leaders who were widely seen as key voices of moderation within the five-member body, formed in October after the Hamas-led attack on Israel sparked Israeli bombing and l ground invasion of Gaza.
The two centrist politicians boosted public confidence in government decision-making at a time of national trauma. They also gave the war cabinet an aura of legitimacy and consensus as Israel battled Hamas in Gaza, as well as its archenemy, Iran, and its other proxies, including the powerful Hezbollah militia, ‘other side of Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Mr. Gantz accused Mr. Netanyahu of “political procrastination,” suggesting he had postponed crucial strategic decisions to ensure his political survival. His decision to leave the war government ushers in a new period of political instability and has left many Israelis wondering where the country goes from here.
Calling the political upheaval “incredibly consequential,” Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group based in Jerusalem, said Israelis had already given bad grades in government on a host of war issues. That includes combat management and relations with the United States, Israel’s crucial ally, he said.
“With Gantz out, I expect those ratings to get even lower,” Mr. Plesner said.
Mr. Gantz issued an ultimatum three weeks ago, warning Mr. Netanyahu that he would break up the emergency government unless the prime minister presented clear plans, including on who would replace Hamas as leader of Gaza. post-war and how to bring back the dozens of hostages still held in the Palestinian enclave.
Mr. Gantz joined the government last October to foster a sense of unity in times of crisis. He has joined forces with his political rival, Mr Netanyahu, despite a deep lack of trust between the two and a history of betrayal. The last time Mr Gantz entered a government with Mr Netanyahu, in 2020, it also ended badly after Mr Netanyahu. broke their power-sharing agreement.
The influence of Mr. Gantz and Mr. Eisenkot, whose son, a soldier, was killed in December during the fighting in Gaza, has declined in recent months, leading many Israelis to wonder why they had not left the emergency government and joined the opposition sooner. Mr. Gantz has called for early elections this fall.
Mr Netanyahu’s official partners remain the war cabinet are his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, a rival within his conservative Likud party that Mr. Netanyahu I tried to pull Last year; and Ron Dermer, a veteran Netanyahu confidant with more diplomatic than political experience. It is unclear whether the war cabinet will continue to operate.
A separate, broader security cabinet includes two ultranationalist party leaders: Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, and Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister. Both want to resettle Gaza with Israelis.
Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich both vowed to bring down Mr Netanyahu’s government whether he follows through on an Israeli proposed deal involving a truce and an exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, which, as President Biden pointed out more than a week ago, would effectively end at war.
Analysts say at least two potentially destabilizing challenges now threaten Mr Netanyahu’s government.
The first is the prospect of an agreement with Hamas. Israeli and American officials say they are awaiting a formal response from Hamas to the truce proposal. A positive response could well force Mr. Netanyahu to stop procrastinating and choose between a deal and the survival of his government.
The other challenge is the deeply polarizing issue of mass exemptions from military service granted to ultra-Orthodox men enrolled in religious seminaries.
Ultra-Orthodox exemptions have long been a divisive issue in Israeli society, but tolerance for the decades-old policy has weakened in a country where most 18-year-olds are conscripted for years of compulsory military service, and even more during this war. The same group of reserve soldiers find themselves repeatedly recalled for long tours of duty in Gaza as the campaign enters its ninth month, without a clear plan, experts say, for the direction it will take.
On Monday evening or early Tuesday, the Israeli Parliament was expected to vote on a recruitment bill that would keep the ultra-Orthodox exemption system intact. Although Mr. Netanyahu is pushing him to appease his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, even some members of his conservative Likud party — including Mr. Gallant, the defense minister — oppose it, especially during a war where the country needs more soldiers. .
On the issue of recruitment, Mr. Netanyahu is at an impasse, Mr. Plesner said. “There is an inherent conflict here between his own political base and his most valuable alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties,” he added.
If it passes this first reading, the bill will move to committee before the second and third final votes. But even if the bill fails, said Mr. Plesner — who himself is a former lawmaker for a now-defunct centrist party — it would not necessarily presage the dissolution of Parliament or the collapse of the government.
Mr. Netanyahu’s critics accuse him of prolonging the war to avoid elections and public reckoning over government and military failures that led to the Oct. 7 attack.
Departing from Mr. Netanyahu’s stated war goal of “absolute victory” over Hamas, which many experts view as a vague and unattainable notion, Mr. Gantz said in his resignation speech on Sunday that a “real victory” would be one that combines military success and diplomatic initiative.
“Real victory,” he said, means “changing national priorities, expanding the circle of services and those who serve, and ensuring that Israel is able to confront the challenges it faces.”
“Unfortunately, Netanyahu is preventing us from achieving a real victory,” he added.
Mr. Netanyahu responded by a post on social media addressing Mr. Gantz saying: “Israel is engaged in an existential war on multiple fronts. Benny, now is not the time to abandon the campaign, it is the time to join forces.
Now, analysts say, Mr. Netanyahu will likely focus primarily on maintaining his narrow coalition in the short term.
The summer session of Parliament ends at the end of July and the legislature will not reconvene until after the Jewish High Holidays in late October or November.
“Netanyahu only has one thing on his mind,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “Maintain your own power as Prime Minister.”
“His main goal is to move this coalition just far enough through the fall,” she said, so that the next Israeli elections cannot take place until after the U.S. presidential election.
Mr. Netanyahu, she added, was probably hoping that Donald Trump, the candidate he views as most sympathetic to his cause, might then be elected.
That would mean that if he makes it through the next six weeks, Mr. Netanyahu could live to fight another day.
