The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is caught between two regional powers and could face serious social, political and economic repercussions if regional tensions continue to escalate.
Jordan’s precarious position means that any regional action – an intensification of hostilities between Iran and Israel or an Israeli invasion of Rafah – can have incendiary repercussions domestically.
“Any impending Iran-Israeli war is going to put Jordan on a tightrope,” Sean Yom, a Jordan expert at Temple University and author of From Resilience to Revolution, told Al Jazeera. “Publicly, he must stay out of the fray; he cannot side with any fighter.
Jordan has pushed for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza and publicized its aid distribution efforts in the besieged enclave.
But that did little to appease the many demonstrators who gathered in front of the American and Israeli embassies. Among their demands are an end to relations with Israel and the United States.
Since October 7, protests in Jordan have ebbed and flowed as Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians.
Analysts say the monarchy has tried to pressure the United States and Israelis for a ceasefire and increased aid to Gaza, but those efforts have had little impact.
A more recent incident has further exasperated the population.
“A question of principle”
On the night of Saturday, April 13, the Royal Jordanian Air Force took to the skies to intercept and shoot down dozens of Iranian drones as they flew over Jordanian territory en route to Israel.
Iran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consular building in Damascus. A senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed in the attack along with other commanders.
The Jordanian government has said it is defending its national borders.
“There was an imminent danger of drones or missiles falling in Jordan, and the Jordanian armed forces dealt with this danger appropriately,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said.
“We will not allow anyone to compromise the security of Jordan and Jordanians… This is a matter of principle and these are measures we have taken in the past. We took them yesterday and we will take them in the future, whether the source of the threat is Israel, Iran or anything else. »
Jordanians have strong sympathy for the Palestinians. With approximately three million Palestinian refugees, more than half of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian origin and native Jordanians have strong solidarity with Palestine.
Some social media accounts have called Jordan’s King Abdullah a “traitor” for his country’s role in shooting down Iranian drones.
Jordan’s actions also initially angered Iran. The Fars News Agency, which is run by the IRGC, said that the Iranian armed forces threaten Jordan to become a future target if they interfere with Iranian military operations against Israel.
“The Iranians actually went after the Jordanians and the king and his family very aggressively,” Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns University, told Al Jazeera Hopkins in the United States.
Both sides quickly buried the hatchet, with Iranian newspaper Mehr News claiming that Safadi had told Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian by telephone that Israel would not abuse its airspace.
“On Sunday, April 14, the Revolutionary Guards proclaimed Jordan a potential target because they viewed the Hashemite Kingdom as collaborating with Israel, but on Monday, April 15, the Iranian Foreign Ministry allayed concerns, calling Jordan a country diplomatic. partner and an ordinary state with normal relations with Iran,” Yom said.
In fact, this incident could lead to a warming of relations between Jordan and Iran. The two men have discussed normalization in the past and Nasr believes this incident may have acted as an accelerator.
“I think the Jordanians, just like the Saudis, will come to the conclusion that ultimately having zero relations with Iran doesn’t really serve their interests,” he said.
Jordan’s predicament
“Jordan could suffer collateral damage (in the event of a wider war),” Yom said. “It could suffer physical destruction, as well as economic damage from loss of tourism revenue and potential trade flows. »
In the early hours of April 19, U.S. officials claimed that an attack inside Iran had been carried out by Israel.
Explosions were heard in Isfahan and Iranian authorities said three drones had been shot down, but gave no credence to an outside attack, saying only that an investigation would be launched. Israel has not claimed responsibility.
Safadi posted on social media the same day: “We warn of the danger of regional escalation. We condemn all actions that threaten to drag the region into war…Israeli-Iranian retaliation must stop…The world’s attention must remain focused on ending the catastrophic aggression against Gaza.
But for the Jordanian government, attempts to achieve some sort of calm in the region have achieved little.
“There is considerable frustration that allies like the United States support Jordan’s national defense, but continually thwart its policy preferences and advice, failing to secure a ceasefire, failing to prevent regional escalation, failing to get more aid to the suffering Palestinians in the region. Gaza, and even having the sole veto in the vote for Palestinian state at the United Nations,” Curtis Ryan, author of three books on Jordan, told Al Jazeera.
“The king considers Netanyahu an impossible interlocutor,” said Jose Ciro Martinez, a Jordan expert at York University in the United Kingdom.
Domestic problems
“I think most Jordanians are unhappy that the kingdom is caught in the crossfire of a regional conflict – a conflict they did not ask for and do not want to escalate,” Yom said.
A Jordanian researcher, who followed the protests and requested anonymity, said most people were not surprised by their state’s reaction to the Iranian response, given close security ties with the United States. United and Israel.
Some have even started selling missile fragments on an online marketplace.
Protesters did not take to the streets following the destruction of Iranian drones. While some criticized the government on social media, most of the frustration lay elsewhere.
“Some have criticized the government for cooperating with the United States and Israel to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones,” Yom said.
“But publicly, most blame Netanyahu’s government since the Israeli state is the actor who bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, not to mention the genocide in Gaza.”
However, Jordan’s internal situation will put the monarchy to the test. Even before October 7, the country faced many challenges on its borders and internally.
The economy, which took a major plunge during the COVID-19 pandemic and slowly rebounded, was hit “massively” by the recent war, Ibrahim Saif, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. Orient and former Jordanian minister.
“We have seen a severe slowdown in some economic activities that have a direct and indirect impact on Jordan,” he said, mentioning tourism and the ambiguity surrounding the private sector.
“Now you can add threats to cut (funding) UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) which serves at least a million people in Jordan . All this has led to enormous pressure on the Jordanian economy, which is also reflected in politics. »
All eyes will now be on Rafah in Gaza, where residents fear a ground invasion by the Israeli army is imminent.
If that were to happen, protesters could take to the streets again.
As demonstrators peacefully took to the streets in front of the Israeli embassy on Friday in solidarity with the people and resistance of Gaza, the energy of the protests, particularly during Ramadan, has calmed, analysts and observers said.
Sometimes violent repressions and arrestscoupled with what some analysts call protest weariness or despair, may have discouraged them.
“Normally, if the protests are national, the king replaces the Prime Minister. But he can’t offer anything to the protesters this time,” Martinez said. “When (the monarchy) has nothing to offer, that’s when it starts arresting people.”
Jordanian security forces have experience handling protests. The use of arrests and occasional violence has taken the wind out of some protests in the past, and the longer the demonstrations drag on, security forces hope that participants will lose hope and go home. According to analysts and observers, this has started to happen.
“Protest fatigue has set in as authorities have tolerated relentless popular mobilization for months,” Yom said. “Many activists are resigned and deeply desperate because their actions will not change the situation. »
