Some on the right fear that immigration will result in the white American population being largely replaced by non-whites. This hypothesis is sometimes called “the great replacement.” There’s a big replacement happening, but these worriers have things exactly backwards. (As an aside, this article will not examine the pros and cons of a change in ethnic mix. I will instead argue that the dreaded change does not happen.)
To understand why the Great Replacement theory is wrong, it helps to start with a little American history. A century ago, people tended to view the white race in a more narrow way. The first settlers in the 1600s and 1700s were generally white Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from northern Europe. This was followed by a new wave of settlers from countries including Ireland, Italy and Eastern Europe. Although today we think of these more recent immigrants as white, they were initially considered members of a very different ethnic group – what we would call “minorities.” Over time, they became more successful and assimilated into the majority WASP population. here is a screenshot of certain books that explained how these groups became “white” in the cultural sense. (Again, I’m using race here as a social construct, not a biological category.)
Today, the vast majority of immigrants come from Latin America and East Asia. They gradually assimilate into the majority white population, often through intermarriage. In 100 years, the descendants of Asians and Hispanics will be considered just as white as Italian-Americans, Jewish-Americans, and Irish-Americans are today.
My daughter is a good example. People who meet her for the first time almost universally consider her “white.” And yet, my daughter’s mother comes from China. So, in a sense, my East Asian wife is being “replaced” by a white girl. This is the real “Great Replacement”.
It is true that there are slightly fewer intermarriages between whites and blacks, but that does not change the fundamental situation. Since 1990, blacks have made up between 12 and 13 percent of the U.S. population, roughly the same level as in 1870. The Great Replacement theory focuses primarily on the effects of Asian and Hispanic immigration, and it is where assimilation occurs at a rapid rate.
You will sometimes see predictions that white people will become a minority at some point in the future. Don’t believe them. I’ve seen this kind of prediction from time to time throughout my life, and yet, culturally speaking, white people are still so dominant. What changes over time is our conception of what it means to be white. This category will be continually redefined in such a way as to maintain whites in the majority. I suppose some on the left might view this process with suspicion, but I believe assimilation is a very positive development. The greatest ethnic conflicts tend to occur in countries that do not experience assimilation.
