There’s nothing to hide: losing a third of their seats in last week’s European Parliament elections, the Greens fell.
In recent years, the European Union has become the most ambitious country in the world in the fight against climate change. He did this through major policy changes, such as setting high emissions reduction targets, preparing to move away from combustion engines, promoting nature restoration and reducing the effects of climate change. agriculture on the environment. The green parties of the 27 EU member states have successfully carried out this program.
But in recent years, something has clearly broken among a large part of the European electorate.
European voters are worried about the war in Ukraine and its effects on defense and the economy. A cost-of-living crisis fueled by the coronavirus pandemic is still hitting major members of the European Union. Reducing immigration has become a concern of voters. In this new set of priorities, the Greens’ appeal seems to have faded – or worse, made them seem out of touch.
“Europe has really done a lot on climate action,” Bas Eickhout, a prominent Dutch Green politician who is vice president of the European Greens, said in an interview. “But especially after the war in Ukraine and the inflation that caused the cost of living crisis, I think a lot of people are worried now and wondering, ‘OK, can we afford this?'”
Autopsy
A certain number of explanations emerge for the Greens’ poor electoral results.
Centrist parties have eaten into the Greens’ support by integrating much of their program into their own policies. However, the identity of the Greens has not evolved sufficiently. This gives the impression that the Greens are focusing too narrowly on an issue – climate – that has slipped down the list of voters’ priorities.
But there is also a broader trend that does not favor the European Greens. The backlash against climate change policies, as part of broader culture wars, has gained momentum.
In many places, the nationalist agendas of far-right parties have been reinforced by populist appeals to economically struggling citizens. The right surged among voters by specifically targeting the Greens, portraying them as unfit to protect poorer workers in rapidly changing societies.
For many voters, the Green parties failed to demonstrate that their proposals were not just costly, anti-growth policies that would hit the poorest the hardest. And some see them as elitist city dwellers who ignore the costs of transitioning to a less climate-damaging lifestyle.
Mr Eickhout said this line of attack against his party had taken root. “They describe this transition as a very elitist transition, reserved for the ‘Tesla people,’” he said. “And I can tell you, Tesla no longer has a good image.”
Then there are European farmers, who have fiercely protested against green policies over the past two years, particularly rejecting those that sought to limit the use of chemicals in agriculture and introduce nature protection measures. which would eat away at agricultural land. The protests have frightened moderate voters and politicians.
In Europe, green parties perform particularly poorly in countries where they are part of the governing coalition, mainly in Germany.
The enormous youth movement which enabled the Greens to win one vote in five in Germany five years ago was undermined by their membership in the government coalition. “The party cannot please the young, progressive voters it wants to welcome into its party and, at the same time, appease moderate voters who are wealthier,” said Sudha David-Wilp, regional director of the German party’s Berlin office. . Marshall Fund.
Because Germany is the most populous country in the European Union – and therefore has the largest number of seats in the 720-seat European Parliament – the Greens’ poor performance there has been widely reflected .
Green signals
The Greens’ picture is not disastrous everywhere. Green parties have performed very well in Nordic countries like Denmark, Finland and Sweden, partly due to greater prosperity and longer debates on climate change.
And they have made surprising inroads in Eastern and Southern Europe, notably Italy and Spain, countries that have traditionally had weak Green parties and, in some cases, have never even elected Green MPs to the European Parliament.
Perhaps the most complex political situation for the Greens is that of the Netherlands, a country with a particularly strong climate change movement; a strong and uniquely organized peasant movement; and a hugely successful far-right movement that won national elections late last year.
There, the Greens officially ran alongside the Labor Party, a social democratic party, and won the election, relegating the far-right party to second place.
For the Greens, this type of successful collaboration could provide a model coalition in upcoming local and national elections elsewhere in the European Union, Eickhout said.
“It is absolutely crucial that the Green party has greater credibility, not just on climate,” he said, adding that working with social democratic parties could help create a compelling progressive alternative to the conservatives and to the far right, while remaining faithful to the climate of the Greens. roots.
Who pays?
The Greens’ poor performance has sparked a chorus of laments over the death of the European Union’s Green Deal – as we know that the set of policies that the bloc has adopted to combat climate change and limit its own contribution – is dead.
Experts say these concerns are unrealistic: many of the policies supposed to make an ambitious goal of reducing carbon emissions possible are already in place.
But procrastination and policy dilution due to the loss of green momentum are very real risks, warns Simone Tagliapietra, an expert on European climate policy at Bruegel, a major Brussels-based think tank.
And defunding Green Deal policies could also undo their effectiveness. To avoid this, he added, the European Union should push for a common budget to invest in the green transition and protect the poorest from any economic fallout.
“The radical transformation of the Green Deal raises difficult questions about who will pay,” Mr Tagliapietra said. “If these costs end up falling disproportionately on ordinary workers – let alone the poorest and most vulnerable communities – the transformation will worsen inequalities and become socially and politically unsustainable,” he added. “That’s not an option.”
Christopher F. Schuetze contributed reporting from Berlin.
