This is Yves. We have yet another heartening observation on the state of global warming, in the form of an update on the Thwaites Glacier.
By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published on God’s spies
Location of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica (source)
Thwaites Glacier, a Florida-sized ice mass on the west coast of Antarctica, was called the “doomsday glacier” due to its potential to wreak havoc on its own.
Go to 2:29 minutes to see a visualization of undercutting in action.
“How quickly this will happen is a lively debate,” the narrator says at 3:33. It was 2020. Not so much anymore.
“It will take decades, not centuries”
From CNN on May 21 (via the excellent climate news aggregator, The Chronicle of the Collapse):
Ocean water is flowing for miles beneath the “doomsday glacier,” which could have disastrous consequences for sea level rise.
…Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural barrier to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists estimated its complete collapse could ultimately cause sea levels to rise by around 3 meters – a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
Numerous studies have highlighted Thwaites’ immense vulnerabilities. Global warming, caused by human consumption of fossil fuels, has left it hung “by his nails”, according to a 2022 study.
CNN is not making any connection with the study. The UC Irvine announcement is here. The paper itself is here.
The main author, Eric Rignot, was quoted as saying: “Projections will increase…(Collapse) will take several decades, not centuries. Part of the answer also depends on whether or not our climate continues to warm.
Needless to say, the climate continues to get warmer. And don’t be fooled by the word “a lot.” He tries not to scare you too much.
Our bet with the future
No one is saying this will happen immediately. The “decades” are still not next year. But global sea surface temperatures are setting new records, and at an accelerating rate.
As you can imagine, there is a certain panic caused by this, even more by scientists (see also here And here) than those who owe their lives to the wealthy class.
How many “decades” could all this happen? My bet is two or three, by the mid-2050s.
Global sea level rise compared to sea level near you
But whatever the timing of Thwaites’ complete collapse, the change it brings will not be gradual, but sudden, in stages. If a piece of ice the size of Florida that isn’t submerged suddenly falls into the sea, it will raise global sea levels – by itself – by up to two feet.
And this increase will not be well distributed. The sea near New York, for example, will rise 1½ times the global average:
Thwaites’ collapse, when it comes, will change everything. And the ensuing collapse of West Antarctica will ice the rest of the cake. The first could happen in about 20 years – remember, everything speeds up.
And the second… well, when that happens, it might not matter at all, given how scrambled our scrambled eggs will be then.
The solution
The solution, of course, lies in the action of a “vigorous” type. The state known much better than most. That’s why it was prepare. We will look at this soon.
