Johannesburg, South Africa – Nearly a month after historic national elections that saw the African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time, forcing it to form a coalition to govern South Africa, a deadlock over the distribution of ministerial posts threatened to topple the entire house of cards.
Tense negotiations, mainly between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the two largest parties in the coalition, led to delays this week in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement of his cabinet in the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Fears were heightened and markets reacted badly to news that DA leader John Steenhuisen threatened to pull out of the coalition, amid leaked letters between the leaders of the two parties showing them at odds.
But on Friday, as Ramaphosa was due to meet Steenhuisen, the political horse-trading that has characterised the last two weeks of negotiations showed signs of an imminent deal.
The rand – which fell following news of the discord – strengthened following indications that a cabinet announcement was pending and that the government would include the market-friendly, right-wing DA.
Political analyst Khaya Sithole said markets were favourable to the DA being part of the GNU – a cross-party coalition – because the party was unlikely to demand radical changes in economic policy.
“A GNU with the DA gives the perception that there will be continuity in economic policy because the ANC will maintain the trajectory it was on,” Sithole told Al Jazeera.
He said the DA – which holds 87 parliamentary seats to the ANC’s 159 – would not demand new policies and did not have enough political power to impose radical changes.
“Markets are buying into the continuation of government policies and programs,” Sithole said, adding that “a partnership between the ANC and DA will not change the scenario.”
He said markets reacted negatively to fears of a DA withdrawal from the GNU because the alternative – a possible allegiance between the ANC, the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and other smaller parties – posed uncertainty.
Leaked letters
Negotiations between the GNU parties over ministerial posts were marked by a series of meetings and correspondence between Ramaphosa and party leaders.
During the negotiations, the DA’s demands for specific powerful ministerial posts prompted Ramaphosa to issue a stern warning in a letter leaked to the media that “the DA has jeopardised the foundations of establishing a government of national unity by shifting the goalposts”.
The DA began negotiations with a long list of demands including 11 ministerial positions, a dozen deputy ministerial positions – including the position of deputy finance minister – and other changes to governance legislation.
The party initially demanded the vice-president’s post, but conceded to ANC negotiators.
The ANC called the DA’s initial demands “scandalous” and sought to negotiate with other parties as a fallback.
A subsequent meeting between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen appears to have resolved differences and eased tensions.
However, after accepting six cabinet positions, the DA persisted.
Steenhuisen – in a letter to Ramaphosa – threatened to walk away from their coalition deal if Ramaphosa did not give the party eight ministerial posts.
“On a purely proportional basis, in a 30-member cabinet, the DA’s share of support within the GNU translates into nine positions instead of the six currently on the table. Similarly, we see no reason why the number of DA deputy ministers should be reduced to just four,” Steenhuisen said in a letter to Ramaphosa on June 24.
Ramaphosa took a tough response, making the DA a take-it-or-leave-it offer after refusing to increase the number of positions offered to the DA.
“I must inform you that we continue to discuss with other parties what portfolios they might occupy as we seek to finalize the GNU agreement. I must point out that the task of establishing a government is very urgent because we cannot continue with this paralysis,” Ramaphosa wrote in a letter dated June 25 that was leaked to the media.
The DA received 21 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for the ANC. The other parties having signed a declaration of intent represent 8.5 percent of the votes.
‘Almost done’
On Friday, media reports quoting DA officials said the party was still committed to reaching a deal with Ramaphosa.
Meanwhile, Fikile Mbalula, the ANC’s secretary-general, posted on X that the parties were “almost done with the GNU discussions… It will happen as promised.”
Hello, South Africa has almost completed discussions on GNU, in the best interest of all South Africans. It will happen as promised.
— ANC SECRETARY GENERAL | Fikilé Mbalula (@MbalulaFikile) June 28, 2024
Also on Friday, Ramaphosa announced that the opening of the new parliament would take place on July 18.
The 71-year-old leader was re-elected for a second full term after the ANC suffered an unprecedented loss of support in the May 29 election – the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the party had won a majority of less than 50 percent.
In the aftermath, the ANC opted to form a coalition government. But they decided against a firm grand coalition with the DA and opened negotiations with the smaller parties represented in government to become part of the GNU.
The GNU now comprises 10 parties, including the nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the right-wing populist Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the Pan-African Congress (PAC), among others.
Political analyst and commentator Lukhona Mnguni said the DA’s demands proved that their participation in government alongside the ANC remained “an absolute gamble for them”.
“They want to be sufficiently isolated from the ANC and they want to prove that they are sufficiently isolated from the ANC,” Mnguni told Al Jazeera.
He said the DA fears being swallowed up by the ANC within the GNU and wants to assert itself despite the fact that the ANC has twice as much support as it does.
“The fight is over their political interests as political parties and how that affects their position in the 2029 elections,” he said.
“Anxieties” and divergent interests
Mnguni said the exchanges gave an indication of the DA’s “concerns” about being in government with the ANC and other smaller parties.
While the DA preferred a grand coalition with the ANC to co-govern the country, the ANC insisted on bringing together the smaller parties in a unity government.
Following its list of demands, ANC leaders accused the DA of negotiating in bad faith and hit back on all fronts.
“The ANC’s actions demonstrate their vulnerability and their assertiveness. The two could be a dangerous combination because it can create a deadlock,” Mnguni noted.
During a final round of negotiations between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen, the latter insisted that the DA be allocated to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.
This ministry plays a critical role in shaping economic policy and oversees the government’s transformation efforts, as well as efforts to break up monopolies.
The DA, a predominantly white-led party, does not support all of the ANC’s black empowerment programs.
The party’s claim to the trade and industry post has angered ANC leaders who insisted the DA was playing too much of its hand in the negotiations.
Mnguni said the DA was seeking to ensure it had influence over the executive.
“Both sides could walk away,” he said when asked about the possibility of the DA leaving the GNU.
