Afghanistan’s shock victory over Australia in the T20 World Cup means all four Super 8s Group 1 teams can still qualify for the semi-finals.
India are in pole position after winning their first two matches of the second round by a good margin, while Bangladesh face them after two heavy defeats.
Here are the permutations ahead of the final round of matches, with India taking on Australia on Monday (3:30 p.m. UK) before Afghanistan meet Bangladesh on Tuesday (1:30 a.m. UK).
As always, net run rate could prove crucial…
How T20 World Cup Super 8s Group 1 looks ahead of final round of matches
India on course for semi-finals
Rohit Sharma’s team, which beat Afghanistan and Bangladesh by 47 and 50 runs respectively, will definitely qualify for the semi-finals if they beat Australia or the match ends in rain.
They will also qualify if they lose and Bangladesh beat Afghanistan or if this match is abandoned.
If they lose to Australia and Afghanistan and then beat Bangladesh – results that would leave India, Australia and Afghanistan with four points each – India’s solid net progress rate, which s currently standing at +2.425, would still leave them in a good position.
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Highlights of India’s 50-run win over Bangladesh as Hardik Pandya scored an unbeaten 50 off 27 balls
For them to be eliminated on net run rate, India would have to lose to Australia by 41 runs and Afghanistan would have to beat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Australia or Afghanistan are likely to be in the running for a spot
Australia’s success rate (+0.223) is currently better than Afghanistan’s (-0.65), which could give the 2021 champions the edge should these two teams win or lose.
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Highlights from Afghanistan’s historic 21-run Super 8 win over Australia
To illustrate a scenario, if Australia beat India by one run, Afghanistan would have to defeat Bangladesh by 36 runs to move ahead of Australia in terms of net run rate.
If Afghanistan loses by just one point, Australia would have to have lost by 31 points for their net points rate to fall below Afghanistan’s.
If Australia wins and Afghanistan loses, Australia will qualify. If Afghanistan wins and Australia loses, Afghanistan will qualify. No results in both matches and Australia advance to NRR.
What about Bangladesh?
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Pat Cummins’ hat-trick helped Australia beat Bangladesh in their Super 8s debut
With a net score of -2.489, Bangladesh is struggling to qualify for the semi-finals. To do that, they would need a heavy victory against Afghanistan and a massive defeat for Australia against India.
To get ahead of Afghanistan on NRR, they would have to beat their opponents by 31 points, but that would only be good enough for second place if Australia lost to India by 55 points.
Watch India vs Australia Live Sky Sports Cricket from 3 p.m. on Monday (3:30 p.m. first ball) then Afghanistan vs Bangladesh from 1 a.m. on Tuesday (1:30 a.m. first ball) on the same channel.
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