Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, predicts that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the US presidential elections in November. In a E-mail At The Block, Kendrick explained the factors behind this prediction and offered more detailed perspectives on BTC’s price trajectory.
If this happens, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by November
“As the US election approaches, I expect $100,000 to be reached and then $150,000 by the end of the year if Trump wins,” Kendrick said. He highlighted the current political climate and recent regulatory decisions, noting: “The Biden administration recently demonstrated pragmatism by approving spot Ether ETFs, but subsequently Biden vetoed efforts to repeal SAB 121. Thus Trump is even friendlier than Biden.
Kendrick highlighted the potential impact of tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls data on the price of BTC. He noted that favorable data could trigger a new all-time high over the weekend, paving the way to $80,000 by the end of June. “If the data is ‘friendly,’ I expect Bitcoin price to hit a new all-time high over the weekend,” he said.
The analyst also reiterated his long-term price forecast, maintaining an end-of-year target of $150,000 and an end-2025 forecast of $200,000 per BTC. “Notably, a price of $150,000 by the end of 2024 would see Bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA’s $3 trillion market cap that was reached yesterday,” Kendrick pointed out.
Two months ago, Standard Chartered published a research note offering a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum through the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could reach $8,000. These projections were reinforced by the launch Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which saw massive influx.
Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained that “rapid inflows to new Bitcoin spot ETFs have dominated (…) Most inflows will likely be persistent retirement-style flows,” highlighting the new stability of BTC investment trends.
Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin valuation is based on three crucial analyses. First, draw a parallel with gold marketIn response to the introduction of gold ETFs in the United States, the bank estimates that BTC could reach the $200,000 level, an increase of 4.3 times from its price before the ETF.
Second, optimizing a portfolio of 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000. Finally, a linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and the BTC price indicates a possible level of $250,000, assuming total ETF inflows are around the bank’s median estimate. 75 billion dollars.
The bank noted that these measurements suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ price level for BTC at the end of 2025, (…) and that it will likely be the new midpoint of a range of side trading at that time. The study further suggests that “a surge to $250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue at a healthy pace and/or reserve managers purchase BTC.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $71,183.
Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com
