From BOFIT:
Figure 1: In March, production fell in almost all central industries in Russia. Sources: CEIC, Rosstat and BOFIT.
Excerpt from the article (translated via Google.Translate):
In March (seasonally adjusted), production fell slightly in almost all key industries compared to the previous month. Each year, production continued to grow in most sectors, but more slowly than before.
Also in the processing industry, annual production growth slowed to 6 percent in March. However, the processing industry is the only key industry whose production also increased on a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis. Growth in the processing industry continued to be driven in particular by war-related industries. At the start of the year, their production experienced a new growth spurt after a slowdown at the end of last year. The role of war-related industries in Russia’s recent economic development was also examined in a recent BOFIT blog.
Although the economy is on a war footing, production seems unable to cope with losses on the battlefields. From ISW Today:
Recent satellite images showing depleted Russian military vehicles and weapons storage facilities further indicate that Russia is currently supporting its war effort largely by removing its stockpiles rather than manufacturing new vehicles and some large-scale weapons. News week reported on May 8 that a social media source that tracks Russian military depots said that satellite imagery indicates that Russian vehicle stores have declined significantly from pre-war levels by nearly 32 percent, increasing from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389 in May 2024.(11) The Army Depot Tracker noted that Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its stockpiles of MT-LB multi-purpose armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), which have transitioned from 2,527 pre-war to 922 remaining; BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles, which decreased from 637 pre-war to 244 remaining; and BTR-50 armored personnel carriers (APCs), going from 125 pre-war to 52 remaining. The military depot tracker noted that Russia no longer has any new BTR-60, 70 and 80 models in stock and only 2,605 – likely in reference to vehicles currently in service – remain. its pre-war stocks of 3,313. The Military Depot Tracker noted that Russia currently deploys between 1,000 and 2,000 of its remaining MT-LBs in Ukraine. Another open source account on unspecified towed artillery, believed to be one of the largest in Russia. .(12) The source indicated that approximately half of the remaining artillery systems at this base are likely unusable due to degradation during storage and because many of the remaining systems are Second World War artillery systems. World War incompatible with modern munitions.(13)
Russia relies on vast reserves of Soviet-era vehicles and other equipment to support its operations and casualties in Ukraine at a level far beyond what Russia’s current DIB could support, and Russia will also not be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these reserves for many years. . The British think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported on February 12 that Russia would likely be able to maintain its current rate of vehicle losses (more than 3,000 armored fighting vehicles per year) for at least two or three years by mainly reactivating stored vehicles. (14) The IISS also estimated that Russia lost more than 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in 2023 and nearly 8,000 armored fighting vehicles since February 2022, and that Russia has likely reactivated at least 1,180 tanks. main combat and approximately 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel. The carriers were removed from storage in 2023(15). Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 4 that the Russian Defense Industrial Base (DIB) can produce 250 to 300 new and modernized tanks per year and repair another 250 to 300 tanks per year. (16) Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to war bases – a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid until now.(17) )
