Are you better than you expected Four years ago? I use 2016-2019 trend growth to determine what is “expected.”
Figure 1: Per capita consumption in Ch.2017$, calculated using consumption divided by population (blue) and 2016-19 (stochastic) trend (tan). The NBER has defined the peak to trough dates of the recession in gray. Source: BEA, Census via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.
