This is Yves. Attributing Modi’s underperformance in the recent Indian elections to the opposition’s failure to mobilize responses on caste issues makes perfect sense… to outsiders. Can those who know Indian politics say whether this analysis is accurate or too reductivist?
By Priya Chacko, Associate Professor of International Politics, University of Adelaide and Anand Sreekumar, PhD Student, University of Adelaide. Originally published on The conversation
This year’s general elections in India have arguably raised more questions about fairness of the electoral process than any other in the history of the country.
For example, in December, a bill was passed by the Indian parliament authorizing election commissioners to be appointed by a panel dominated by the executive branch, which many feared would endanger free and fair elections.
And during the campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a series of speeches that were widely considered Islamophobic, in which he accused the opposition Congress party of favoring Muslims. The Electoral Commission failed to do this adequately apply the model code of conduct with respect to these comments.
Opposition chief ministers, Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), were arrested for corruption. Both sides claimed the accusations were politically motivated.
One lesson of the election, however, is that even when questions arise about the freedom and fairness of a vote, opposition parties can undermine the dominance of ruling parties.
In India’s elections, the opposition presented a united front and stuck to a consistent message reflecting specific issues of voter discontent.
Why Caste Politics Was So Important
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party did not perform as well as expected in the election, suffering significant losses in its northern Indian heartland states. Modi began the six-week election campaign saying his party would win more than 400 seats. Ultimately, it was reduced to 240 seats, while the opposition National Alliance for Inclusive Development (INDIA) won 232 seats.
INDIA has had a difficult start to the election. A founding member, the Janata Dal, joined Modi’s coalition earlier this year. INDIA too failed reaching a seat-sharing agreement with another member, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), although that party remained a member of the alliance.
Yet as the campaign progressed, the BJP’s attacks on the opposition led to a more united front, focusing particularly on the caste issue.
Indian society and politics are stratified according to their caste system. It has roots in ancient religious textswhich grant symbolic and material rights and privileges to people based on their membership in a particular caste.
Speech by Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi Underlines a commitment to protecting the Constitution and solving the problem of caste-based injustice in India. He pledged to undertake a caste census to reveal the extent of disadvantage and concentration of wealth in society.
He also highlighted the centralization of power by the government, as well as the adulation of Modi by the upper-caste-dominated media and their inattention to issues of unemployment and inflation.
Lalu Prasad Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is also part of the INDIA coalition, warned the BJP intended to amend the Constitution to end caste-based affirmative action. Although this has been denied by Modi, this allegation seems to strike a chord voters.
For me, the biggest story of this election is that Indian parties made massive gains in Dalit and rural constituencies, while the NDA held on to urban and upper caste constituencies. tells you everything, really pic.twitter.com/9DcqLlIRow
-Mohit (@mohiittverma) June 4, 2024
Caste has presented a dilemma for Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics, which values upper-caste Hindu practices and behaviors while relying on majority support from lower castes to win elections.
The BJP had sought to ease this tension by promoting social protection schemes and accusing the secular opposition of colluding with Muslims to deprive poor lower-caste Hindus.
Before the elections, Modi also claimed to have replaced traditional forms of caste stratification with four new social castes.beneficiaries» – women, farmers, young people and the poor.
In reality, however, the government’s social programs consisted of paltry cash transfers, small loans, food rations, and subsidies for private goods like toilets, which sought to compensate for for stagnant incomes and lack of jobs. The Modi government’s health and education spending, which could have transformative effects on society, has been languishes.
The BJP’s infrastructure-focused economic agenda has benefited big business, leading to accusations of crony capitalism. He also failed to attract important foreigner invest or grow the manufacturing sector to create more jobs.
Over the past decade – but particularly in the wake of the COVID pandemic – India has also become one of the the most unequal countries in the world. Women, Dalits, Adivasis And Muslims experienced the worst.
Dalit politicians have also gained prominence
Perhaps the BJP’s biggest surprise was its heavy losses in its central state of Uttar Pradesh.
The Samajwadi Party (SP) previously dominated Uttar Pradesh politics by promoting the interests of certain lower castes, “other backward classes”. This tactic, however, generated resentment among other lower castes, which was exploited by the BJP to gain power in 2017.
During this election, the PS seems to have shaped a new caste coalition.
This election also saw further changes in the politics of Dalits, the lowest rung of India’s caste structure. In Uttar Pradesh, new Dalit political parties have emerged more and more importantlike the Azad party led by Chandra Sekhar Azad.
Further south, the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) has consolidated its status as the largest Dalit party in Tamil Naduwinning all the seats he ran for.
The future of Indian democracy
Indian democracy is not yet out of the woods. Activists, students, political leaders And journalists remain imprisoned.
The Hindu nationalist movement also has a history of inciting community violence when things don’t go as planned on the electoral scene.
The Modi government has started to expand its media censorshipalso during elections.
There is no indication that Modi will moderate what many see as authoritarian tendencies, but there is now more resistance, skepticism and policy alternatives that will hopefully contribute to India’s democratic restoration.
