For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to propose a timetable for ending the war against Hamas in Gaza, a reluctance his critics see as a political tactic. But he was embarrassed by President Biden’s announcement. sketching a truce proposal.
Mr. Netanyahu, a conservative, has long juggled competing personal, political and national interests. He now appears to face a stark choice between survival of his intransigent, hawkish government and repatriation of hostages held in Gaza, while setting himself and Israel on a new path away from international growth. isolation.
Critics of the prime minister have described him as indecisive and say there are two Netanyahus. One of them, they say, functions pragmatically within the small war cabinet he formed with a few centrist rivals, to give him public legitimacy. The other is effectively held hostage by the far-right members of his government coalition, who oppose any concession to Hamas and ensure its political survival.
On Friday, Mr. Biden laid out the terms and conditions that he said were presented by Israel to American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators who pushed for a deal to suspend fighting and release hostages in Gaza. Israeli officials confirmed that the terms corresponded to a ceasefire proposal that had been approved by the Israeli war cabinet but not yet presented to the Israeli public.
Today, analysts say, is a critical moment for Bibi, as the prime minister is commonly known.
Mr. Biden “brought Netanyahu out of the closet of ambiguity and presented Netanyahu’s proposal himself,” Ben Caspit, a biographer and longtime critic of the prime minister, wrote in Maariv, a Hebrew daily, on Sunday. “Then he asked a simple question: Does Bibi support Netanyahu’s proposal? Yes or no. No nonsense and wind.
The leaders of the coalition’s two far-right parties – Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister – have pledged to oust Mr Netanyahu’s government if the prime minister accepts the agreement outlined. by Mr. Biden before Hamas was completely destroyed. Some hardline members of Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party have said they would join them.
At the same time, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two former military leaders who joined the emergency government for the duration of the war, threatened to withdraw support for their centrist National Unity Party by the 8 June if Mr. Netanyahu did not show up. with a clear path forward. And the opposition parties have started to organize in an attempt to overthrow the government.
The ceasefire proposal has three phases. Under the plan, groups of hostages would be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, a temporary ceasefire would turn into a permanent cessation of hostilities, and an internationally-backed effort would be launched to rebuild Gaza.
More than 100 hostages were released in a smaller deal last November. An estimated 125 people remain detained by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, although dozens are believed to have died.
Israelis had to analyze two statements following Mr. Biden’s speech that Mr. Netanyahu’s office released – unusually – over the Sabbath. The statements neither strongly supported the proposal nor denied that it had been presented by Israel to the mediators. Conditional and open to interpretation, they were apparently intended to leave Mr. Netanyahu’s options open.
The first statement said Mr. Netanyahu had authorized the Israeli negotiating team to present a proposal that would result in the release of the hostages and “also allow Israel to continue the war until all of its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of the Hamas army and government.” abilities. »
The second reiterated these conditions for ending the war and added: “The idea that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are met is doomed to failure. »
However, Mr Netanyahu’s oft-stated goal of “total victory” over Hamas in Gaza was conspicuously absent – a slogan Mr Biden dismissed on Friday as a vague goal that would mean indefinite war.
While some of Mr. Netanyahu’s most ardent supporters have taken to wearing blue baseball caps emblazoned with the “Total Victory” logo, statements from the Prime Minister’s Office this weekend appear to be calibrated to match the goals of war declared by the Israeli army. the military and defense establishment, as well as by Mr. Biden.
On Sunday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reaffirmed that “in any process aimed at ending this war, we will not accept the rule of Hamas.” He said Israel would “isolate areas” of Gaza, rid them of Hamas members and “introduce forces that will allow an alternative government to form,” without specifying who those forces might be.
Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents have accused him of prolonging the war to avoid elections and public accountability for the failures of Israeli intelligence and policy that led to Hamas’s devastating attack on Israel on October 7. This attack triggered the Israeli military offensive in Gaza and the widespread death and destruction that followed.
But much is now at stake for Mr. Netanyahu, who finds himself at both a political and strategic crossroads.
Since forming his current government – the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel’s history – 17 months ago, Mr. Netanyahu has had an increasingly difficult relationship with Mr. Biden. And while the top four congressional leaders formally invited asking him to address a joint meeting of Congress on Friday, they have not set a date.
The bipartisan unity masked a tense behind-the-scenes debate over the prime minister’s nomination, given deep political divisions in the United States over Israel’s continuation of the war in Gaza.
Mr. Biden presented the truce agreement not only as a way to end the bloodshed in Gaza, but also as a path to a broader agreement in the Middle East that could lead to greater integration of Israel in the region and include a “potential historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia”. Saudi.” Israel, Mr. Biden said, “could be part of a regional security network to counter the threat posed by Iran.”
Mr Biden acknowledged that some parts of Mr Netanyahu’s coalition would not agree with the proposal and would prefer to continue fighting for years and occupy Gaza. He urged Israeli leaders “to support this agreement, regardless of pressure.”
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on Sunday he would give Mr. Netanyahu and the government his full support for a deal that would bring the hostages home. Although the president’s role is largely ceremonial and he does not have executive powers that could help Mr. Netanyahu if his government falls, his voice is meant to be a unifying voice that reflects the national consensus.
After Mr Netanyahu’s office issued statements on the truce proposal, John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, sought to clear up any ambiguity about its origins. “It was an Israeli proposal,” he told ABC News on Sunday. “We expect that if Hamas accepts the proposal, as it was conveyed to them – an Israeli proposal – then Israel will say yes. »
Yet, drawing on past experience, some Israeli analysts remain skeptical of Mr. Netanyahu’s willingness to abandon his far-right coalition partners. That, said Reuven Hazan, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, would require “a new Netanyahu.”
“Whenever he had the choice to go for what is good for the country or for his extremist fanatics, or even for his own party, he always went with his extremist fanatics,” Professor Hazan said. He added that Mr. Netanyahu had also learned to say “yes, but…” to the Americans, then “wait for Hamas to say ‘no’ and drag this out as long as possible.”
For its part, Hamas said in a statement on Friday that it considered Mr. Biden’s speech “positively” and said it was ready to treat “constructively” any proposal based on a permanent ceasefire and other conditions he mentioned.
Given the U.S. political calendar, Professor Hazan said, Mr. Netanyahu only needs to engage in “politics of survival” until Labor Day. in late summer, after which the administration will focus on the November presidential election.
“Is Netanyahu ready to do a 180-degree turn and do what is good for the country? » said Professor Hazan. “Everyone is in a pickle about this now. Don’t hold your breath,” he warned. “A speech from President Biden does not mean we have a new Netanyahu. »
Zolan Kanno-Youngs contributed reporting Rehoboth Beach, Delaware
