Declan Rix names four horses he will keep at Ascot on Saturday, live Air sports races.
Topganga
2.05 Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% EBF British Fillies Handicap (Class Two)
Ten fillies and mares are set to compete in this class two mile contest on Ascot’s straight track. With bookmakers at 5/1 on the peloton, it suggests how competitive this race is, but the unexposed public Topganga can hopefully run well with his most recent clean run in the 1000 Guineas last weekend.
The well-bred daughter of Siyouni finished fifth of six, beaten 7 lengths, in the Group 3 Fred Darling contested by Elmalka (third), the subsequent heroine of the 1000 Guineas. She was well beaten, no doubt, but a tactical race over 2,000 meters was never going to bring out the best in her.
Andrew Balding’s inmate is clearly not up to the task either, but this will be his first start in a handicapping company for a high-profile project. The team is currently running well, but many Balding runners are improving for their second run this season. Hopefully Topanga falls into this category as well.
The move to a mile seems like a big plus, especially if she gets into a steady race pace.
Mostabshir
2.40 Lavazza & Ascot 10th Anniversary Victoria Cup (Class Two)
Twenty-two riders in a typically competitive Victoria Cup, but on paper there doesn’t appear to be much pace. We can sometimes assume that these high profile handicaps will always be run at full gallop, but that scenario might not happen in this renewal and I would like to be on a leading runner drawn from the mid to high range.
Mostabshir matches this bill for the John and Thady Gosden operation. In a way, it’s a little disappointing that he showed up here. The superb Shadwell-owned horse was considered good enough to run in last season’s St James’s Palace Stakes, and acquitted himself well despite his inexperience (sixth of nine behind Paddington, beaten just over seven lengths).
The wheels came off after that race at Royal Ascot, mentally more than anything potentially, given he was a gelding and now wearing blinkers. The headgear seemed to bring him back to life last time out at Kempton, a good run on his seasonal debut.
He has every right to go for it in this effort, with Saturday’s seven-furlong ride probably being his ideal distance these days, while an acceleration of the field would also be very much in his favor.
Arab storm
2.40 Lavazza & Ascot 10th Anniversary Victoria Cup (Class Two)
I will also throw Arab storm in the big-money mix at the Victoria Cup. Like Mostabshir, he can be a bit off, but the Balding yard won a big handicap sprint at Newmarket last week with a similar type, in Desert Cop.
Just like Mostabshir, he is attracted to the middle and high and runs in good positions. In contrast, he returns here from a disappointing race at Kempton, in the same race Gosden’s owned horse finished third. While Arabian Storm has won all-time before, that was at odds of 1/4 and was the second time he has run well below average on an artificial surface.
Returning to the field after a 45-day break for a top team can hopefully bring him back to life. It would be nice if this pit rail proved to be the sweet spot when it was drawn in ’19.
Warda Jamila
4.20 Mariner Systems Fillies Handicap (Class Four)
We have another horse trained by Andrew Balding Warda Jamila here, another filly who is making her second start of the season after a good return to Newbury.
She has a mixed pedigree in terms of speed and endurance; speed coming from his father Calyx while his mother, Promise Me, is by Montjeu. This page makes her the half-sister of the best stay on the site, the very friendly Coltrane; so, over time, one would hope that it will prove to be better than its current score of 80.
After drifting in the betting ahead of his 2024 debut, Warda Jamila looked like he was returning to good form. She may have been more enthusiastic than ideal on the trip in the first round of the season, but she did better than the distance covered and can hopefully take another step forward.
