Mexican voters awaited the results Sunday of a groundbreaking election on several fronts: It would be the largest electoral race in the country’s history, it was among the most violent in recent memory and it will likely put a woman in the lead. power. the presidency for the very first time.
The two main contenders, who, according to polls, largely share the electorate, are women. The favorite is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist representing the ruling party and its allies. Her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman whose list includes an array of opposition parties.
Ms. Sheinbaum had a double-digit lead in the polls for months, but the opposition argued that those figures underestimated the true support for Ms. Gálvez. In an interview, she said that “there is an anti-system vote” and that if Mexicans mobilize in numbers on Sunday, “we will win.”
“She’s in a state of mind where she’s 30 points ahead,” Ms. Gálvez said of Ms. Sheinbaum. “But she’s going to get the surprise of her life.”
The competition highlights the immense progress made in recent years in Mexican politics by women, who were not even allowed to vote in the country before 1953. The top two candidates have considerable experience: Ms. Gálvez was a senator and Ms. Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.
“For the first time in the 200 years of the republic’s existence, we women will achieve the highest honor our people can bestow on us: the presidency of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Nearly 99 million voters were expected to vote for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional offices, as well as the presidency – the largest turnout and seats up for grabs in Mexican history.
Yet much of the race focused on a figure who was not on the ballot but still loomed large: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Mr López Obrador has been a fixture in Mexican politics for decades, running for president in three previous elections before finally winning a landslide victory in 2018.
Although widely popular, Mr. López Obrador has been a polarizing figure, drawing adulation from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help lift millions out of poverty. The administration also gave more power to the military and took steps that many fear would weaken democratic institutions.
Mr. López Obrador’s dominance upended establishment politics, prompting three parties — right, center and left — to form an uneasy union that supported Ms. Gálvez.
Ms. Sheinbaum appealed to voters primarily by promising to carry on Mr. López Obrador’s legacy. Ms. Gálvez has presented herself as an alternative for those unhappy with her leadership, promising to reverse many of Mr. López Obrador’s policies.
“The way these elections played out is a testament to the impact López Obrador had on Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “It is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.”
On Sunday, in Tepetitán, a small town in the state of Tabasco known as Mr. López Obrador’s birthplace and the stronghold of his supporters, two voters left their polling station with a feeling of optimism. Teutila Gallego Salvador, 71, and Gloria Maria Rodríguez, 78, voted for Ms. Sheinbaum.
“We love her – we want her to work like Obrador,” Ms. Rodríguez said. “We want a president like Obrador.”
In the capital, Carlos Ortiz, 57, took to the streets in a wheelchair after voting. A municipal officer, Mr. Ortiz voted against the ruling party.
“I want everything to change, I no longer want a country on fire,” he said.recalling the dozens of local candidates who have been killed in recent months. “The president is completely crazy. He has no idea what he’s doing.
That’s why his vote went to Ms. Gálvez, Mr. Ortiz said, as well as to Santiago Taboada Cortina, the opposition candidate for mayor of Mexico City.
Irregularities marred the vote in certain regions of the country. In Tlapanalá, a town in the state of Puebla, armed men entered a polling station located in a school and stole several hundred ballots. “They threatened to shoot the officials if they did anything,” said Delia Pale Tepetla, a local election official. told reporters.
The governor of the state of Querétaro, Mauricio Kuri, confirmed at least four reported incidents. In two of these cases, unknown suspects attempted to burn down polling stations – but were arrested or people managed to put out the flames. Confirmed reports of ballot theft also emerged in other states such as Michoacán.
Whoever succeeds Mr. López Obrador will face daunting challenges.
Cartel violence continues to plague the country, massively displacing the population and fueling one of the deadliest campaign cycles in recent Mexican history. During his term, Mr. López Obrador focused the government’s attention on tackling the drivers of violence instead of waging a war against criminal groups, a strategy he called “hugs, not hugs.” bullets.”
Ms Gálvez criticized this approach.
“Enough hugs for the criminals and bullets for the citizens,” she joked during the election campaign. She said she would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and ask them to focus on fighting organized crime, while also strengthening the police.
Ms. Sheinbaum said she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but would tackle the problem of impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
Economically, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, benefiting from a recent shift of manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong that it has been nicknamed the “super peso.”
But there are also cooking problems. The federal deficit rose to about 6 percent this year, and Pemex, the national oil company, is facing a mountain of debt, putting a strain on public finances.
“The fiscal risk we face right now is something we haven’t seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research group.
Another challenge involves sweeping new powers given to the armed forces, which have been tasked with managing ports and airports, running an airline and building a railway through the Mayan jungle. Ms. Sheinbaum said “there is no militarization” of the country, while suggesting that it is open to reassess the army’s involvement in public companies.
In addition to domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be closely linked to the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. A re-election victory by President Biden would provide continuity, but a return of Donald J. Trump to the White House will likely be much less predictable.
Mr. Trump promised to stop undocumented immigrants on a large scale and deport them to their country of origin, a wish that could affect millions of Mexicans living in the United States. And he has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the ongoing problem of fentanyl, which the U.S. government says cartels produce in Mexico from chemicals imported from China. Mr. Trump suggested taking military action to combat the trade.
Managing such pressure from Washington, even in the form of inflammatory campaign rhetoric, could prove a challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Ms. Sheinbaum said Mexico would have “good relations” with either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden as president, and her campaign team said it would continue to work to contain migrant flows.
Ms. Gálvez said she, too, would feel comfortable working with both men.
Asked how she would handle Mr. Trump, she replied: “I’m used to dealing with toxic masculinity. »
“It seems to me that Trump, deep down, is a pragmatic man,” she said, adding: “What he wants to do is solve the problems at the border and with fentanyl, and I think that we can.”
James Wagner contributed reporting from Tepetitán, Mexico.
