The highly anticipated first flight of Ariane 6 could finally take place this summer after years of delay. But before we get too excited, European Space Agency Director General Josef Aschbacher is already setting the rocket up for failure without it even reaching the launch pad.
During a panel discussion at the 39th Space Symposium this week, Aschbacher noted that heavy rockets have a 47 percent chance of experiencing a major anomaly during their inaugural flights, European Spaceflight. reported. Although he did not specifically refer to Ariane 6, this statement puts a major damper on the upcoming debut of the long-awaited heavy-lift rocket.
Ariane 6 has been in development for more than a decade. The 197-foot-tall (60-meter) rocket is capable of lifting 10 metric tons to low Earth orbit, 4.5 metric tons to sun-synchronous orbital (SSO) altitudes reaching 500 miles (800 kilometers) and more than 10 .5 metric tons to low Earth orbit. geostationary transfer orbits (GEO). The French company Arianespace is developing the rocket on behalf of the ESA, Ariane 6 being the successor to the Ariane 5, now retired. The legendary rocket made its last flight in Julyending a 27 year run.
At that time, Ariane 5 was the European market’s primary means of transport to space, and without it, Europe is struggling to find rocket options capable of putting its payloads into orbit. After cut ties with Russia Following the invasion of Ukraine, Europe was forced to stop relying on Soyuz rockets to access space. The ESA recently turned to the American company SpaceX to deliver his Euclid telescope, which spear on July 1, 2023 aboard a Falcon 9 rocket.
The inaugural launch of Ariane 6 was initially planned for 2020, then postponed to late 2022, mainly due to the covid-19 pandemic and additional technical obstacles encountered during its development. The rocket’s maiden voyage was subsequently systematically delayed, with a key test of the rocket’s upper stage in December 2023 aborted after two minutes of engine startup.
Arianespace has not released any details regarding its investigation into the test failure. However, Ariane 6’s takeoff is now tentatively scheduled for June or July this year. Even if the rocket takes off this summer, Aschbacher’s comments remind us that success is only a 50-50 matter.
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