Last week we received the GDP and wage figures for the first quarter, as well as the employment indicators and coincident indicators for May. These data give us the following picture.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark NFP (pink), civilian employment (beige), real wages deflated by national chain CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logarithms 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed (1), (2)and the author’s calculations.
GDP shows a stagnant trend until the first quarter of 2024. However, most other indicators show continued growth in the first quarter and thereafter. In particular, wages and salaries (currently about 52% of total income and 46% of GDP) deflated by chain CPI have continued to grow.
Both employment indicators (CES and CPS) have remained stable since January/February this year, suggesting stagnation in employment. In contrast, the coincident index, based on additional labor market data, shows a continued increase.
In summary, we continued to see mixed indications, with growth or a sideways trend.
