Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to President Biden, met with senior Lebanese officials in Beirut on Tuesday, where he pressed for a diplomatic solution amid increasingly deadly skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia , have made the situation more difficult in Israel. The Lebanese border is dangerously unstable.
Over the past eight months, as the war raged in Gaza, another battle took place along Israel’s northern border. At that time, Hezbollah, a well-armed and proven fighting force, and the Israeli military played a risky game of tit-for-tat, carrying out attacks that flexed their muscles but avoided a full-scale war. Despite the seemingly measured approach taken by both sides, civilians have been killed in both countries and more than 150,000 people have fled their homes along the border.
Since October, more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and around 80 Lebanese civilians have died, while at least 19 Israeli soldiers and eight civilians have been killed.
As fighting intensifies, any miscalculation risks drawing both sides into a broader escalation. Given Hezbollah’s strength as a fighting force, a full-scale war between Israel and the group could devastate both countries.
“The situation is serious,” Hochstein told reporters in Beirut. “We have seen an escalation over the past few weeks, and what President Biden wants to do is avoid further escalation into a bigger war. »
“It will take everyone’s interest to end this conflict now, and we believe there is a diplomatic path to achieve this – if the parties agree,” he said.
During his stay in Beirut, Mr. Hochstein will not meet with the leaders of Hezbollah, which the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist organization. Instead, he will meet only with members of the Lebanese government, whose influence over the group is limited.
Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful military and political force, is far more powerful and better armed than it was during its last war against Israel in 2006. Unlike Hamas, the Palestinian militia fighting Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah troops are highly trained fighters and the group possesses long-range, precision-guided missiles that can strike targets deep within Israel. In Israel, military planners see the specter of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack — in which Palestinian gunmen overran the supposedly well-protected Gaza fence — looming over their northern border. But worryingly, a similar assault by Hezbollah would include the group’s elite units.
Shlomo Brom, a retired Israeli general, said the large number of munitions in Hezbollah’s arsenal – particularly its drone stash – could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the event of a full-scale war.
Hezbollah fighters are also battle-hardened by their experience in the Syrian civil war, where they intervened on the side of the Assad regime, also backed by Iran, General Brom said.
“In a no-holds-barred war, there will be greater destruction both on the domestic civilian front and deeper inside Israel,” said General Brom, a former top military planner. “They have the ability to target more or less anywhere in Israel and will target civilian targets, just as we will target south Beirut,” he said, referring to districts of the capital known to be Hezbollah strongholds.
For Hezbollah, a major escalation is also worrying. Lebanon’s economy was in free fall even before the current crisis, and many Lebanese have little desire for revenge for the 2006 war, a month-long battle that killed more than 1,000 Lebanese and 165 Israelis and displaced more than a million people.
The current fighting began shortly after October 7, when Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, launched strikes on northern Israel in a show of solidarity. Israel retaliated shortly after.
Last week, an Israeli strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Taleb Abdallah, prompting Hezbollah to step up its attacks on Israel in retaliation. Over the next few days, Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets and drones into Israel in coordinated strikes, injuring several soldiers and civilians.
Mr Hochstein, the US envoy, is in the region this week hoping to ease tensions between the sides. On Monday, he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the country’s president and defense minister, to try to advance a diplomatic solution.
Despite the risks, Mr. Netanyahu faces growing pressure at home to step up the country’s military campaign against Hezbollah. Tens of thousands of Israelis from border communities remain scattered across the country, with no time to return home. And far-right members of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition have called for tougher action, including establishing an Israeli-run “safe zone” inside Lebanese territory.
