The orientation of these two former generals is more military than political. They fear – and want to avoid – the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ruling Gaza in the long term, which Gallant said would be a “dangerous path” for which Israel would pay a heavy price “in bloodshed and destruction.” victims “.
The United States shares this view. “It is imperative not only that the conflict in Gaza ends as soon as possible, but that Israel present a clear plan for how Gaza will be governed, secured and redeveloped,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during of a Senate committee hearing. this week.
Without it, he said, Israel would face unacceptable options: military occupation and long-term insurgency, the return of Hamas, or anarchy and lawlessness. “We believe that the Palestinians should be governed by themselves,” he said.
The United States is also pressuring Arab states to agree to an international force that could provide security in Gaza in the short term. The United States does not want to send its own troops on the ground, but wants countries like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates to do so instead. But diplomats say these countries made clear they would only participate if the West recognized the state of Palestine, if there was an agreed path to a two-state solution and they came to the invitation of a kind of Palestinian leadership.
“The next day cannot be separated from the political process, it must be part of a global whole,” an Arab diplomat told me. “No one will set foot on earth without a political process.”
Some Arab states believe the United States has focused too much on seeking a deal to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. They concede that this could be key to getting Israel to agree to a broader political settlement, but suspect it is seen as too much of a “silver bullet” by some U.S. officials.
They also believe the United States needs to think more about the “next day” for Israel, engaging more closely with moderate voices who could win popular support for a Palestinian-governed Gaza. There is also discussion about the role Turkey could play, using its influence over Hamas to reach some sort of post-war agreement.
Ultimately, the main obstacle to any agreement is Benjamin Netanyahu. He refuses to discuss it, contenting himself with categorically opposing any role for the Palestinian Authority. He fears antagonizing far-right members of his government, who favor a long-term Israeli occupation. But pressure is mounting on the Prime Minister, and one day he may have to choose.
“The risk is that there will be no ‘day after’,” said a Western diplomat. “Israel could do Rafah, Hamas would still be there, there could be another Rafah. The military campaign could last months.”
