Crypto analyst TechDev (@TechDev_52) recently shared detailed chart analysis suggesting that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of its most significant breakthrough yet. This analysis, supported by historical trends and technical indicators, indicates a potential shift in the market that could lead to unprecedented price levels for Bitcoin.
THE chart provided by TechDev illustrates the price evolution of Bitcoin in USD as well as its price in relation to the M1 money supply (BTC/M1). Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited distinct phases of parabolic price increases, known as “explosion highs,” followed by sharp corrections. These blowout peaks are marked with green checkmarks on the chart, occurring in 2011, 2013, and 2017. Each of these peaks was followed by significant corrections.
Notably, the 2021 peak did not result in an explosion peak, as indicated by the red cross on the chart. This deviation from historical trends is significant because it suggests a possible change in market behavior.
TechDev’s chart also highlights a key pattern known as the “downward right-angle broadening formation.” This technical pattern is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a widening wedge shape. This pattern typically signals a period of consolidation, during which price oscillates within broadening trendlines before a decisive breakout. The chart shows that Bitcoin has recently broken out of this widening wedge, indicating a potential shift from a consolidation phase to a new uptrend.
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The analyst commented: “Important. Bitcoin only saw exploded highs after breakouts against M1 money income. And the more consolidated it is, the longer it lasts. This breakout follows the longest consolidation ever. In fact, this represents a classic breakout of a wedge that has been widening for five years. The last 5 years have been corrective compared to the M1. BTC is impulsive against it again for the first time since 2017. We have never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this.
Bitcoin could surpass the 2021 cycle
Another critical aspect of TechDev’s analysis is the breakout of Bitcoin relative to the M1 money supply. The M1 money supply includes physical currency and verifiable deposits, which represent the most liquid forms of money in the economy. TechDev highlights that Bitcoin broke out against M1 for the first time since March 2017. This breakout is particularly significant because it suggests that the recent increase in Bitcoin price is driven by intrinsic demand rather than a simple increase in the money supply. .
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TechDev comments on this breakout by stating: “You are seeing the first breakout of Bitcoin relative to the M1 money supply since March 2017, when it went historically parabolic for 9 months. Comparisons and trend projections involving 2021 could end up significantly underestimating things. An interpretation: in 2021, BTC reached new highs in USD thanks to the increase in the money supply. In 2024, he arrived there at his own request (and thus broke out against M1). Add in this time the expected growth of M1 and we will likely see BTC exceed expectations based in part on 2021.”
TechDev’s analysis highlights the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s performance relative to macroeconomic indicators such as M1 money supply. By exceeding M1, Bitcoin demonstrates strong intrinsic demand, which is a bullish signal for future price movements. Historical patterns of explosive highs following similar breakouts suggest that Bitcoin could enter a new phase of price discovery, potentially leading to new all-time highs.
At press time, BTC was trading at $69,032.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
