After a turbulent election campaign marked by strong attacks on the government by virtually all candidates over the economy, internet restrictions and strict enforcement of the hijab law on women, Iran will hold elections on Friday to choose a president.
The vote comes at a perilous time for the country, with the new president facing a cascade of challenges including discontent and divisions at home, a struggling economy and a volatile region that has brought Iran to the brink of war twice this year.
With the race coming down to a three-way battle between two conservative candidates and a reformist, many analysts predict that neither will get the necessary 50 percent of the vote, requiring a July 5 runoff between the reformist candidate and the leading conservative.
This outcome could be avoided if one of the leading conservative candidates withdrew from the race, but in a bitter public feud, neither Gen. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a pragmatic technocrat, nor Saeed Jalili , a hard-liner, did not move.
Polls open at 8 a.m. local time Friday across the country, and typically close late at night. But Iranian elections are tightly controlled, with a committee of appointed clerics and jurists vetting all candidates and intimidation of opposition voices in the media. As a result, many Iranians are expected to refrain from voting, either in protest or because they do not believe meaningful change can come through the ballot box.
Four young women studying psychology at Tehran University who were shopping for makeup at Tajrish Bazaar in northern Iran gave a glimpse of the discontent on Wednesday. Although they were unhappy with the situation in Iran, they said they did not intend to vote.
“There is nothing we can do to improve the situation. We only have hope in ourselves,” said Sohgand, 19, who asked not to be identified for fear of authorities. “But we want to stay in Iran to improve the situation of our children. »
She wore well-cut black pants and a fitted jacket, and left her brown hair uncovered. But she also had a scarf draped around her shoulders in case an official asked her to wear it. As for the rules requiring women to wear the hijab, she added simply: “We hate it.”
In an attempt to counter these attitudes, senior Iranian officials, from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to top commanders of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, have characterized the vote as an act of defiance against Iran’s enemies and a validation of the Islamic Republic’s regime.
“The high turnout in the elections is a very sensitive issue for us,” Gen. Hossein Salami, the top commander of the Revolutionary Guards, said this week. “It strengthens Iran’s strength in the world.”
The government expects a turnout of around 50 percent, higher than the most recent presidential and parliamentary elections, but well below previous presidential elections, in which more than 70 percent of the electorate participated.
Since Mr. Khamenei makes all major Iranian state decisions, including foreign and nuclear policy, who votes depends more on the general political atmosphere in the country than on any individual candidate. .
With two of the six initial candidates having dropped out, voters will have to choose between Mr. Jalili, with his hardline views on domestic and foreign policy; Mr. Ghalibaf, who is the speaker of parliament; the reformist candidate, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiologist and former health minister whose candidacy is somewhat unpredictable; and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative cleric who has held senior intelligence posts and who polls suggest will most likely win less than 1 percent of the vote.
The final days of the campaign revealed tensions between the main conservative candidates, Mr. Ghalibaf and Mr. Jalili, over who should step aside to consolidate the conservative vote and, they hope, avoid a runoff.
That was hardly visible at a rally on Wednesday at a sports stadium in Mr. Ghalibaf’s hometown of Mashhad, where he greeted a crowd of supporters waving the Iranian flag and chanting his name, videos of the event showed. “A strong Iran needs a strong president; a strong Iran needs a president who works tirelessly,” said a cleric who introduced him.
But things were not going so well for Mr. Jalili, who spoke at a rally in the same city that evening. Following the failure of previous negotiations on consolidating the vote, Quds Force Commander-in-Chief General Ismail Ghaani traveled to Mashhad on Wednesday evening to force the two into an emergency meeting, according to media reports Iranians and two close officials. with details of the meeting who asked to remain anonymous so that he could speak openly about the event.
General Ghaani said he wanted Mr. Jalili to step down, given the escalating tensions in the region, the Gaza war and a possible looming conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that could draw Iran in. Given these issues, he said Mr. Ghalibaf, with his military experience and pragmatic vision, was best suited to lead the government, Iranians familiar with the meeting said.
In a remarkable public altercation, with campaign officials from both sides attacking each other on social media, neither man backed down.
The latest Iranian state television poll, broadcast on Wednesday, the final day of campaigning, showed Dr Pezeshkian leading with 23.5 percent, Mr Ghalibaf with 16.9 percent and Mr Jalili with 16 .3 percent, with 28.5 percent undecided and the rest divided among candidates, including those who had dropped out.
The televised debates, in which candidates were surprisingly outspoken in criticizing the status quo, showed that the economy, plagued by U.S. sanctions, corruption and mismanagement, was a top priority for voters and candidates, analysts said.
They say there will be no solution to the economy without addressing foreign policy, including the impasse with the United States over the nuclear program and concerns about Iran’s military involvement in the region through its network of militant proxy groups.
“Rather than a radical change, the elections could produce more modest, albeit significant, changes,” said Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. “Voices in power that want a different direction could push the Islamic Republic to backtrack on some of its positions.”
Mr. Nasr highlighted negotiations between Iran and world powers under the leadership of a centrist President, Hassan Rouhani, that led to the signing of the historic 2015 nuclear deal, which President Donald J. Trump s was withdrawn in 2018 while imposing severe sanctions on Iran targeting its oil revenues and international bank transfers.
Although apathy remains high in most urban areas, voters in provinces with large ethnic populations of Turks and Azeri Kurds are expected to vote in greater numbers for Dr. Pezeshkian. He is himself an Azerbaijani Turk and was a member of parliament for the city of Tabriz, a major economic hub in the northwestern province of East Azerbaijan. Dr. Pezeshkian delivered campaign speeches in his native language, Turkish and Kurdish.
At a rally in Tabriz on Wednesday, the doctor was greeted as a folk hero, with a crowd filling a stadium and singing a Turkish nationalist song, according to videos and news reports. Ethnic and religious minorities are rarely represented in senior positions in Iran, so the candidacy of one of them for president has sparked interest and enthusiasm in the region, according to Azeri activists.
“People want Azerbaijan to return to the upper echelons of decision-making in the country,” said Yashar Hakakpour, an Iranian-Azeri human rights activist in exile in Canada. “Our assessment is that many Azeris will vote for him. »
Mr. Hakakpour said that while he and many other activists would not vote and did not consider Iran’s elections free or fair, he said the people who voted for Dr. Pezeshkian were hoping for small improvements in their lives and their region — such as greater investment; reversing the drying up of Lake Urmia, once a major body of water; and, most importantly, a greater sense of inclusion.
