Two years ago:
This is a photo of my hotel room, just after Sweden applied to join NATO. Just months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine (reminder: the invasion began in 2014).
NOW. From Policy:
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a plan on Tuesday to expand the country’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea near its maritime border with Lithuania and Finland, sparking international concern.
“I’m sure Putin has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s goal is to take control of the Baltic Sea,” Bydén, supreme commander of the Swedish armed forces, told newspapers of the German editorial channel RND.
Two hundred years ago. Today, the Ministry of Defense withdrew the announcement of a unilateral border change, without explanation. Is there a chance that Russia will one day try to take over the island? Well, let’s go back a few hundred years ago:
Source: British Encyclopedia, consulted on 05/22/2024. Edited by the author: Gotland circled in orange.
On this Russian map, Gotland (circled) was not included. This is because it only extends to 1801. In 1808, Russia occupied Gotland, so the answer is “yes”.
Today, Russian forces are fully engaged in the war in Ukraine. Back in 2021, CSIS says successful maritime invasion unlikely. This was a pre-NATO Sweden, so it seems even less likely. However, if Russia were to succeed in Ukraine, thanks to Western recklessness (or MAGA’s cowardice), then Sweden, facing an emboldened Russia, might fare less well. Those who remember history will remember that the surrender of the Sudetenland did not go well.
I might note that although present-day Sweden was never part of Russia, the eastern part of then-Sweden (then Grand Duchy of Finland) was ceded to Russia and got its autonomy (1809-1917).
