WSJ forecast for July compared to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:
Figure 1: GDP as published (bold and black), WSJ July survey average (beige), CBO June projection (blue), IMF WEO July forecast (red) and GDPNow as of 07/17 (light blue). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd publication, WSJ July Poll, July Update of the IMF Western Economic Outlook, Atlanta Federationand the author’s calculations.
Interestingly, the CBO’s June forecast is higher than the 20% maximum (for the fourth quarter of 2024) in the WSJ survey:
Figure 2: GDP as published (bold and black), average of the July WSJ survey (beige), truncated high/low range of 20% based on Q4 2024 growth (grey lines) and GDPNow of 17/07 (light blue square). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd publication, WSJ July Poll, Atlanta Federationand the author’s calculations.
As of July 17, current GDP is growing at a quarterly rate of 2.7 percent in the second quarter, which is in line with the CBO’s forecast. Interestingly, the IMF and CBO’s paths are fairly consistent through the fourth quarter of 2025.
In terms of recession predictions, the estimated probability of a recession in the next 12 months has fallen by one percentage point to 28%. Similarly, only two respondents (out of 68 for GDP growth) predict two consecutive quarters of negative growth: Nicholas Van Ness (Crédit Agricole CIB) and Andrew Hollenhorst/Veronica Clark (Citigroup). In the April survey, 5 respondents were in this group (Van Ness is the only one to overlap).
