Now it’s knockout football at Euro 2024 and our football betting expert Jones Knows reveals his insights and predictions on the action.
Switzerland – Italy, Saturday, 5 p.m.
My advice for European Championship knockout matches is to not be afraid to bet on a draw. Since Euro 1996, those who bet on a draw in this competition have pocketed a very good profit in terms of stakes. As many as 45% of knockout matches ended in a draw during this period. 19/10 drawn with Sky Bet for this one to head into overtime and that seems like a good shout.
Those looking for a stronger betting angle in the game should focus on the Italian corners, where the line looks favorable.
Luciano Spalletti will likely use the 3-5-2 formation he employed against Croatia, which suits key players like Nicolo Barella and Alessandro Bastoni, who play so well in this system at Inter Milan.
It’s a style of play that encourages the wingers to advance into deep central positions, increasing the chances of winning corners. The two wingers here, Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, won 70 corners between them in Serie A last season, with Dimarco averaging 1.65 corners won per game, bettered only by two other players in the league.
Italy won 11 against Croatia in the 3-5-2 system so the six lines or more at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks great.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Italy will win on penalties) | BETTING ANGLE: Italy will win six or more corners (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Germany – Denmark, Saturday, 8 p.m.
This draw seems to be a good thing for Germany. I am wary of this team which does not follow through because it will be vulnerable against a team which plays with quick transitions and speed in the lateral areas. But Denmark is not that team. It is an aging team, lacking imagination especially in the offensive zones. I would be surprised if this dynamic Germany did not show a lot of dynamism in 90 minutes.
Antonio Rudiger is certainly relishing the atmosphere of his homeland playing for Julian Nagelsmann’s attack-oriented side.
He’s a bit of a showman, isn’t he? And already twice during the tournament, he opted for a spectacular strike from distance.
Antonio Rudiger is 100/1 to score from outside the box
He is not safe from shooting from afar. In his final season with Chelsea, he made 20 shots from outside the box, six of which hit the target. You can get 15/2 with Sky Bet on him hitting the target from outside the box – a bet that proved true in Germany’s win over Scotland. And the 100/1 on him scoring from outside the box is one for the dreamers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Antonio Rudiger will have a shot on target from outside the box (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!) and Rudiger will score from outside the box (100/1 with Sky Bet – Bet here! )
England vs Slovakia, Sunday, 5pm
Expect more of the same from England against a similar opponent to those they faced in their group. It will be tough to watch for sure, but Gareth Southgate’s side will likely find their way through a turgid, low-scoring encounter.
A penalty to score seems to me to be a runner here at 5/2 with Sky Bet England are by far the best team in the tournament in terms of penalties, but neither has lost one yet.
England have conceded 35 penalties in just 97 games since Gareth Southgate took charge. That kind of ratio is extremely high.
Take last year’s Premier League campaign for example. The highest ratio of penalties won per 90 minutes was set by Chelsea, who won 12 penalties in 38 games, a ratio of 0.32 per 90 minutes. England are working with a ratio of 0.35 per 90 for penalties won under Southgate and that comes from a larger sample size. That’s a skill.
And that is one of England’s most potent weapons under this manager because they have a delicate attacking line, capable of winning fouls.
Meanwhile, Slovakia, who will defend deep, have already conceded one penalty in this tournament against Romania and conceded two in qualifying.
The numbers suggest there is a good chance of a penalty being scored, but Sky Bet’s odds don’t reflect that probability. Bearing in mind Harry Kane’s penalty record, I’d bet closer to 7/4 than 5/2. And of course, you also have the assurance of a Slovakia penalty being scored in your favour.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: A penalty to score (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Spain vs Georgia, Sunday, 8pm
What odds would you have given that this match would be a knockout stage of this tournament when the full-time whistle blew after Spain’s 7-1 qualifying win over Georgia? A million to one, perhaps?
Overall, Spain outshot the Georgians 10-2 in those two matches, recording 53 shots to Georgia’s 13.
It’s no wonder Spain are 1/7 with Sky Bet to win inside 90 minutes.
While I have no desire to measure myself against Spain, it is hard to ignore what a boost this is for Georgia, who play with such brilliance and fluidity in attack. That makes them a runner here to contribute to the score.
They have scored in 13 of their last 15 games, including those two against Spain, and with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze they have quality. If both teams score, the odds are overpriced at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Both teams score (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
France vs Belgium, Monday, 5 p.m.
I’ve been disappointed with both teams so far, but the tournament could well start here for both. They’re tough to read.
What is obvious is that Belgium’s four defenders, particularly Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen, are going to have a hard time dealing with Kylian Mbappe. This could be the deciding factor.
If Belgium are to progress in any way, they will have to rely on some variation with France’s finish and hope that Kevin De Bruyne stays in the form we have seen from him in this tournament.
He was the heartbeat, playing like a traveling number 10. This type of big deal is made for players of his ilk and it’s his target shooting prices that stand out here. 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to register an effort on target seems huge given his involvement in the final third and the fact that he has already had five shots on target in the tournament.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Kevin de Bruyne to have a shot on target (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Portugal – Slovenia, Monday, 8 p.m.
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo. Portugal’s main man is Bruno Fernandes.
Once Roberto Martinez understands that, Portugal will be better off. Ronaldo has scored only one goal other than a penalty in his last 11 games for Portugal in major international tournaments and his presence becomes a problem and a secondary element.
Fernandes is currently at the peak of his career and showed during qualifying that he is the key to Portugal winning on the big stage. He scored 14 goals and found the net in one of his two starts in the group stage. I expect him to perform well again in the round of 16, starting with what appears to be a truly one-sided encounter against Slovenia. The odds of 11/4 with Sky Bet for Fernandes to score in a Portugal win seem like a good price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Bruno Fernandes to score in Portugal win (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Romania vs Netherlands, Tuesday, 5pm
For someone who has made 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is vastly underrated by Sky Bet markets.
Taking into account that the Netherlands are highly rated and their goal expectation is to score more than two goals, the odds of 9/2 on a Dumfries assist are really interesting. These odds imply a probability of around 18%, I’d say more like 30% based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is on the Dutch right flank.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Denziel Dumfries to record an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Austria vs Türkiye, Tuesday, 8 p.m.
The next two weeks should be exciting for punters like me who backed the Austrian pre-tournament. The 80/1 odds are now 16/1. Not only have Ralf Rangnick’s side proven themselves to be a force, they have also landed in the weaker half of the draw after playing some fearless football that has seen them top the group.
A showdown with Turkey could well be the result of a tournament. This is shaping up to be magnificent chaos.
Austria will press hard and fast while Turkey is full of exceptional and exciting individual players in attack who are allowed to express themselves. In this context, two defenses are likely to make mistakes. This just screams objectives and maps.
It is advisable to keep the extra cards on your side in the knockout stages. Since Euro 1996, in the knockout stages, the average cards per 90 minutes has stood at 4.76 and in the last 16 games of the last two Euros, 13 of the 16 games have seen over 3.5 cards land. If you combine over 2.5 goals here with over 40 points from cards using the Bet Builder, you can imagine a shot at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
