Extract from the press release on the employment situation:
Figure 1: Non-agricultural salaried employment (blue), early NFP reference (bronze) and CPS employment adjusted to the NFP concept (green), all in thousands, sa. The Philadelphia Fed’s first NFP benchmark is calculated by applying the early benchmark ratio of the state sum to the state-level post-benchmark sum to the CES national-level NFP. Source: BLS via FRED, Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Private non-agricultural salaried employment from CES (blue), ADP (green) and total weekly hours for the private non-agricultural sector (tan), all in newspapers, 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED.
Figure 3: Average hourly wage for the non-farm private sector (black), Bloomberg consensus a/a (light blue square) and CPI (dark red), all 2021M11=0. April CPI based on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/3. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Cleveland Fed and author’s calculations.
Figure 4: Real-time indicator of the Sahm rule (dark blue) and 0.50% threshold (dotted red line). Source: FRED.
