As the US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency traders and analysts are speculating that a victory for Donald Trump Bitcoin’s price could surge significantly to new highs in November, according to a report from the Financial Times.
Despite the expectations of a post-halving rallyBTC has struggled to gain momentum since April, amid a variety of factors including asset sales seized by US and German authorities and the defunct company’s $9 billion surplus of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) sales. Japanese stock exchange Mt Gox.
However, market participants are increasingly discussing the possibility of a “Trump trade” that could push the price of Bitcoin higher in the second half of the year.
Trump victory could be a catalyst for price recovery
Following the April halving event, in which the daily supply of BTC available to miners was cut in half, the price of Bitcoin has declined by more than 20% in the last month alone.
Several factors contributed to this disappointing performance, including sales pressure Authorities have been holding over $15 billion worth of BTC in recent weeks, and BTC base trading is dampening hedge fund volatility. Traders and analysts are looking for the catalyst that will drive the next move higher in Bitcoin prices.
According to According to the Financial Times, market optimism around a possible Trump victory in the next US elections is growing. Traders and analysts see Trump as a more pro-crypto candidate, given his positive engagement with the industry and acceptance of crypto contributions.
Industry executives hope that a Trump administration, combined with a strong Republican presence in Congress, will lead to more favorable and clearer outcomes. crypto regulations.
According to Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Julius Baer, Trump’s energy policy proposals are expected to benefit cryptocurrency mining companies, potentially enabling alternative energy sources for Bitcoin mining.
On the other hand, concerns have been raised about Biden’s previous tax proposals on cryptocurrency miners, such as a proposed 30% tax.
How Political News Could Influence Bitcoin Price
The potential implications of Trump’s policies on financial markets have also sparked interest, the report said. Trump’s policies This could lead to a rise in the US deficit, more tariffs on foreign goods and tax cuts, but also higher inflation and US Treasury yields.
This scenario, known as “fiscal dominance,” could affect the price of Bitcoin, which has shown a correlation with crucial U.S. Treasury indicators, according to Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered. A steeper curve and higher breakeven rates could push the price of BTC higher, as they act as a hedge against declining confidence in the U.S. Treasury market.
However, the likelihood of a “Trump trade” and its impact on BTC momentum largely depends on who Trump faces in the election. RealClearPolitics’ betting average currently places Trump’s chances at 55% and Biden’s at 16.5%.
If Biden stays in the race, Bitcoin bulls could be reinvigorated. However, if a new candidate emerges with a chance against Trump, the report notes that Bitcoin price performance could remain subdued.
Nonetheless, narratives and perceptions play a significant role in driving the cryptocurrency market, and if enough people believe in a Trump victory, it could positively influence the price of Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, BTC has regained the $56,560 level after a sharp drop to $53,500 in the early hours of Friday trading.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
