From CBO Report published yesterday.
The budget deficit would have been larger in the absence of this increase:
Figure 1: Basic federal budget balance-to-GDP ratio (blue) and counterfactual scenario without immigration surge (beige), both by fiscal year. The 2023 observation is real. Source: CBO Economic and Fiscal Outlook Update (June) and CBO (July 2024)and the author’s calculations.
Nominal GDP would also have been smaller.
Source: CBO (2024).
In 2023, this increase represented about 1.5% of counterfactual nominal GDP.
