With industrial production slightly below consensus (0% vs. 0.1% m/m), we have the following table of key indicators tracked by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (with the greatest weight on employment non-agricultural employee and personal income excluding transfers).
Figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (NFP) from the CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in $ Ch.2017 (bold green), manufacturing and commercial sales in $ Ch.2017 ( black), consumption in $Ch.2017 (light blue) and monthly GDP in $Ch.2017 (pink), GDP, 3rd version (blue bars), all logarithmic normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance release, S&P Global Market Overview (nee Macroeconomic Advisors, IHS Markit) (5/1/version 2024) and calculations by the author.
The latest weekly economic indicators (for releases through May 11) indicate a jump above 2% (I assume the trend), to 2.16%.
