An analyst has explained when Bitcoin could become big enough to rival even the United States Dollar (USD) based on its historical adoption curve.
Bitcoin must increase its adoption this much to challenge the dollar
In a new job on X, analyst Willy Woo explained how expectations around the original cryptocurrency have recently grown in financial circles.
“The financial world now believes that Bitcoin is a rapidly emerging asset class,” says Woo. However, at present, the token’s total market value is only around $1.2 trillion, while the analyst notes that asset classes are typically valued in “units of tens of billions” .
Woo believes that this expectation around BTC means that the financial world believes three things: BTC could grow at least ten times from now (to cross the $10 trillion market cap mark), compete with USD in size and become a reserve asset.
But when will these expectations come to fruition? To make an estimate, the analyst refers to the “adoption” curve of cryptocurrencies. Below is the chart shared by Woo that compares BTC adoption to that of the internet.
Looks like BTC has seen adoption from 4.7% of the world's population so far | Source: @woonomic on X
The values on the adoption curve here correlate to the percentage of the world’s population currently using the asset. Woo gathered all known studies on the adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to determine the curve.
Some of the most important include Glassnode’s address grouping into “entities» (each entity representing an investor that controls a certain number of addresses) and Cambridge data on verified exchange users.
The chart shows that the number of Bitcoin users currently equates to about 4.7% of the world’s population, according to the analyst’s model estimate.
If the internet’s S-curve is to play out, BTC could still be within its reach. Assuming this is the case, the coin’s user count would show some acceleration from there.
Now, how much adoption does cryptocurrency need to compete with USD? Woo believes this will happen when the curve enters the 25-40% zone, which could potentially happen in the 2030s.
It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin adoption curve will evolve in the coming years and whether it will resemble what has been observed with the Internet.
BTC Price
Bitcoin kicked off this week with a dive below the $59,000 level, but the asset has since recovered as its price is now trading above $61,400. However, it is unclear at this time whether this retracement will last or if the bearish momentum will return soon.
The price of the coin seems to have gone down a net amount in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image of Dall-E, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com
