The message was not getting through. Not through phone calls, not through emissaries, not through public statements, not through joint committee meetings. So, frustrated at being ignored, President Biden chose a more dramatic way to make himself understood to Israeli leaders. He stopped sending bombs.
Mr. Biden’s decision to suspend the delivery of 3,500 bombs to Israel was intended to send a powerful signal that his patience has limits. While insisting that his support for the Jewish state remains “ironclad,” Mr. Biden, for the first time since the Gaza war began last fall, chose to use his power in as Israel’s main arms supplier to demonstrate its discontent.
Keeping the bombs in place represents a significant turning point in the 76-year relationship between the United States and Israel, historically one of the world’s closest security partnerships. But that’s not necessarily a breaking point. The Biden administration is still allowing most other weapons to be sent to Israel, and officials have actually stressed that no final decisions have even been made regarding the bombs that are currently in limbo.
Mr. Biden hopes the selective pause will prompt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to back down from a threatened invasion of Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge. The president opposed such an operation out of fear that many civilian casualties would be caused by American bombs. He said Wednesday he would also block the delivery of artillery shells that could be fired at Rafah’s urban neighborhoods.
“I made it clear to Bibi and the war cabinet that they would not get our support if they went after these population centers,” the president said Wednesday in an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett , referring to Mr. . Netanyahu by his nickname.
He acknowledged, as he rarely did, that American bombs killed innocent Palestinians. “Civilians have been killed in Gaza because of these bombs and other ways they attack population centers,” Mr. Biden said.
Israeli plans to storm Rafah have been a source of intense friction with the Biden administration for months. While the Americans oppose such an operation, the Israelis argue that they must go to Rafah to complete the destruction of Hamas, which killed 1,200 people in its October 7 terrorist attack on Israel.
The dispute came to a head in recent days as Mr. Netanyahu and his war cabinet appeared close to a decision to act against Rafah despite American objections. Administration officials said they began reviewing weapons that could be used in the operation last month and that Mr. Biden approved the bomb bay last week.
“This decision means that Biden has decided to use his only real form of influence over Bibi: withholding weapons,” said Cliff Kupchan, president of the Eurasia Group, who had just returned from a trip to the Middle East . “This is a low point for U.S.-Israeli relations because it begins to put Israeli security at risk. Biden had no choice. This war weighs on his electoral campaign, on the unity of the Democratic Party and on the position of the United States in the world.
The administration hoped the pause would send a quiet message and did not announce it publicly at first, but the Israelis leaked it. In the days following the decision, Israel ordered the evacuation of 110,000 civilians in Rafah, carried out airstrikes against targets on the outskirts of the city, sent in tanks and seized the passage with Egypt. Although the measures were described as limited and not the start of the promised assault, they set off alarms in the White House.
The Israeli actions, which came partly in response to Hamas rocket attacks that killed four Israeli soldiers last weekend, appear aimed at maintaining pressure on Hamas to agree to a ceasefire. temporary fire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages. taken on October 7.
The possibility of such an agreement remains uncertain. William J. Burns, the CIA director who was deeply involved in the negotiations, met with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday even as other officials discussed competing offers from the two sides in Cairo. Reaching such an agreement could be the only way to avoid a more serious rift between Israel and the Biden administration, analysts say.
“What they are asking for is that Israel not intervene significantly in Rafah,” said Elliott Abrams, a Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations who has served in several Republican administrations. “Barring a hostage deal, I think the Israelis are going to go to Rafah and that’s going to cause a lot of tension. »
The relationship between the United States and Israel has been unique since the Jewish state declared its independence in 1948 and, 11 minutes later, President Harry S. Truman made the United States the first nation in the world to do so. recognize. But the relationship has also long been marked by moments of deep stress.
Initially, under Truman and under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the United States refused to sell weapons to Israel. President John F. Kennedy was the first to open the arsenal by providing Hawk anti-aircraft missiles. President Lyndon B. Johnson expanded ties by sending M-48 tanks, A-4 Skyhawk jets, and F-4 Phantom jets.
Presidents have previously withheld aid to Israel to express displeasure or influence policy. President Ronald Reagan repeatedly delayed shipments of fighter jets and other munitions, unhappy with Israeli intervention in Lebanon. President George HW Bush postponed $10 billion in housing loan guarantees to prevent American money from being used to finance settlement construction in the West Bank.
But overall, since World War II, the United States has provided more aid to Israel than to any other country in the world. Last year, the United States provided $158.7 billion to Israel since its founding, the vast majority of which, $124.3 billion, went to its military and missile defense. according to the Congressional Research Service. Under a 10-year memorandum of understanding signed by President Barack Obama, Washington currently provides $3.8 billion in military aid annually, not counting the $15 billion in additional aid approved last month by Congress and promulgated by Mr. Biden.
Republicans were quick to criticize Mr. Biden on Wednesday after Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III publicly confirmed reports of a delay in sending the bomb during a Senate hearing. “It’s obscene. This is absurd,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told the defense secretary. “Give Israel what it needs to fight the war it cannot afford to lose. »
Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the party’s leader in the Senate, said he called Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, Wednesday morning “to express my concern to the administration that the delay in shipping weapons to Israel is just another way of doing it.” to try to tell an ally how to fight the war. He and House Speaker Mike Johnson then sent a letter to Mr. Biden protesting the decision.
On the other hand, Democrats and progressives who have pressured Mr. Biden to limit or cut weapons to curb Israel’s war said the president’s action was long overdue and that It was still not enough after more than 34,000 people died in Gaza, including fighters and civilians. .
Senator Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist from Vermont, said Mr Biden’s decision was “absolutely good” but should only be a start. “Our influence is clear,” he said. “Over the years, the United States has provided tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. We can no longer be complicit in Netanyahu’s horrible war against the Palestinian people.”
The decision caught the attention of Mr. Netanyahu and his war cabinet. Shalom Lipner, a longtime adviser to several Israeli prime ministers, said it “struck a deep chord in Israel, where people are wondering how to limit Israel’s access to weapons – a move that is sure to emboldening Hamas – could be reconciled with Biden’s frequent statements. – a repeated ironclad commitment to its safety.
But he added that “it would be to Israel’s strategic detriment if the Netanyahu government ignores strong opposition from its main provider of military and diplomatic support.”
The 3,500 bombs held last week include 2,000- and 500-pound munitions. The State Department is also still considering whether to proceed with the delivery of Joint Direct Attack Munitions Guidance Kits which can convert so-called stupid bombs into precision-guided weapons, but there are no imminent shipments at the moment. Additionally, officials said they would continue to provide “every dollar” of aid authorized in Congress’ new package.
Mr. Kupchan, the analyst, said the course of U.S.-Israeli relations would depend on what happens next. If Mr. Netanyahu defers to Mr. Biden’s judgment on Rafah, it may only be a momentary flare-up. But if the two leaders remain in a stalemate, it could lead to a broader reduction in arms, which would have a more lasting effect.
“The foundations of the U.S.-Israel relationship are so strong that they will not be significantly damaged by this decision,” Mr. Kupchan said. “Further detentions, while unlikely, would however be a different story.”
