Nearly every path to President Biden’s victory relies on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the smallest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, a key factor in the close nature of the race.
Mr. Biden’s lead among women has slipped to about eight percentage points since the 2020 election, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted over the past six months and compiled by The New York Times. That’s down from about a 13 percentage point lead among women four years ago.
And since the 2020 election, men’s support for former President Donald J. Trump has recovered and returned to the double-digit lead it had in 2016.
Republicans have typically led among men in most presidential elections in recent decades. But every year that Democrats win the presidency, they lead more and more among women.
The decline in support for Mr. Biden has been particularly pronounced among black and Hispanic women, according to a report. new series of surveys focused on women across the country as well as in Arizona and Michigan by KFF, a nonprofit organization that focuses on health care research.
Surveys show that while abortion and democracy are key issues for a small but significant segment of women, concerns about inflation continue to play a more central role in the race and benefit Mr. Trump.
However, in states where abortion is on the ballot, KFF polls offer some evidence in favor of the Democratic theory that the issue will be a motivating factor that pushes women to vote.
Mr. Biden’s support among women is still somewhat more resilient than that among men, which has declined further, particularly among young men and men without college degrees. And Democratic strategists insist that traditionally Democratic constituencies, including women and black voters, will return to Mr. Biden’s side as the race continues.
Yet Mr. Biden’s current struggles with black and Hispanic women are particularly striking. He’s up 58 percentage points among black women in the KFF survey, but that’s a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among black women heading into the 2020 election, according to a polling average from the New York Times/Siena College. of this election. Mr. Biden’s lead among Hispanic women has also narrowed significantly, to about 12 points. The survey finds Mr. Biden’s lead among women is four points.
“Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will rally women,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has studied women’s voting behavior for decades. “And as much as Trump wants to resize himself, he can’t help but brag about how he overturned Roe v. Wade.”
In states like Arizona, where abortion is restricted and could be on the ballot in the fall, Democratic women were more motivated to vote than in states where abortion access was not threatened, according to KFF surveys. Among Republican women, there was no difference in motivation.
In Michigan, which voted to affirm the right to abortion in 2022, Mr. Biden’s results among women are slightly worse than in Arizona, noted Ashley Kirzinger, associate director of polling at KFF.
“It’s not just that Biden is more popular in Arizona, that’s not the case,” Ms. Kirzinger said. “Michigan women no longer worry about abortion access, and Biden is doing worse in this scenario.”
Pro-abortion voters tend to be younger and whiter than women overall, according to KFF polling. They approve of Mr. Biden’s handling of abortion and would like to see him re-elected.
But the much larger group of women who say inflation is essential to their vote could decide this election.
“Women don’t think about a single issue,” said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager and co-author, with Ms. Lake, of a book detailing women’s political desires. “Therefore, these are not voters voting on just one issue. »
“Joe Biden and the Democrats seem to only be talking to women from the waist up, since abortion is the only issue where Joe Biden has a polling advantage,” Ms. Conway added.
Inflation voters are more likely to be black or Hispanic than women in general. They are more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60 percent of black women say inflation is the most important factor in their vote. A similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona say the same thing. For these women, inflation makes all other problems disappear.
Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Mr. Trump, according to KFF surveys. Young women, a key group Democrats hope to retain this cycle, were nearly three times more likely to say their financial situation was better under Mr. Trump than under Mr. Biden. Nonetheless, 41 percent of young women said there was no difference between their financial situation and that of the two candidates. Half of black women also said there was no difference.
This trend toward Democratic success among women is relatively modern. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and then George HW Bush obtained majorities of men and women. But over the past 20 years, it has been rare for a Democrat to fall below a double-digit lead among women. The last Democrat to finish his campaign with a single-digit lead among women was John Kerry in 2004.
