After three years as chief U.S. representative to Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk offers parting advice: Avoid panic over China’s combative language and actions, but don’t numb yourself to the risks .
Ms. Oudkirk served as Washington’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan at a time when the island’s democracy had become a crucible of tensions between Washington and Beijing. China claims that Taiwan is its territory and that it must accept unification, by armed force, if the leaders in Beijing decide.
At times, the debate between Taiwanese and American politicians, officials and experts has also taken on a certain tension, over which combination of tactics (what military purchases, what reassuring or inflexible words addressed to Beijing, what measures with other democracies) might best reduce risks. of war.
Oudkirk, who will leave her post in Taipei early next month, suggested that Taiwan and its partners must find a stable path forward, avoiding both hysteria and complacency.
“These are questions we get asked all the time about how dangerous Taiwan is – you know, about Taiwan being the most dangerous place in the world,” she said, referring to the discussions about an impending crisis or war. “Sometimes sound bites don’t really capture the whole story. »
But she added of China: “When a government, a country, a leader tells you what they think and tells you what they plan, you should listen to what they say. »
After decades of tirades from Beijing, many Taiwanese pay little attention. Chinese military exercises and airspace intrusions are intensifying, but rarely arouse public concern. A majority of Taiwanese also say they believe the United States would intervene if China actually threatened to invade.
But that belief is not universal among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical of U.S. dedication and intentions.
The United States has promised in a law to help Taiwan defend itself, and has the option of sending U.S. forces if China attempts an armed takeover. Some American commanders and experts said an invasion was an imminent possibility: a few years ago some cities 2027 as a potential date for Chinese military action. But Biden administration officials said that they do not see a firm deadline from the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.
Even so, in the years leading up to and during Ms. Oudkirk’s time as the top U.S. representative to Taiwan, China’s pressure campaign against the island about 100 miles from its shores intensified.
She was first posted to Taiwan as a consular officer in 1992, when the island was emerging from decades of martial law and China was much less wealthy and well armed. She then held positions in Dublin, Istanbul and Beijing.
Ms. Oudkirk became de facto ambassador in Taiwan in mid-2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took place a few months later, heightening Taiwanese concerns about a similar gambit of an armed takeover by China. In August 2022, the Chinese army held its most in-depth exercises never around Taiwan, in what Beijing said it was retaliation after the visit of Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, to Taipei.
Taiwan’s presidential election this year gave victory to Lai Ching-te, deeply hated by Beijing, prompting a new round of Chinese military exercises near the island and fiery denunciations from Beijing after his inauguration in May. Mr. Lai then declared that he wanted to preserve Taiwan’s status quo, that is to say that it was autonomous, without officially declaring its independence. Chinese officials reacted with passionate public disbelief.
“His speech on May 20 was from start to finish a straightforward statement in favor of Taiwan’s independence,” Lt. Gen. He Lei, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, said in a statement. recent interview while he was visiting Singapore for a meeting. “Going further and deeper on the path to Taiwan independence will only bring greater dangers across the Taiwan Strait. »
To counter the warnings and China’s growing power, Taiwan and Washington have stepped up cooperation, and the U.S. representative office on a hill northeast of Taipei is a concrete and steel symbol of those ties.
Its official name is American Institute in Taiwan, which may make you think of a language school rather than a diplomatic mission. This vague name is a concession to the fact that Washington ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan when American recognition was transferred to Beijing in 1979.
The American Institute office was for years located in a crowded office in downtown Taipei, maintaining a reduced official presence. The operation strove to remain low-key and, for decades, did not regularly fly the American flag.
Things are different now. The institute’s new complex, built in 2019, is a sprawling affair and has up to 585 staff members, up from 488 in 2019, according to its press service. The American flag is now a constant presence above the building.
“These are examples of how the U.S.-Taiwan relationship has progressed,” Brent Christensen, director of the American Taiwan Institute before Ms. Oudkirk, said in an interview. He now teaches at Brigham Young University.
“A lot of this is precedent-driven,” Mr. Christensen said. “But the Trump administration didn’t care much about precedent, so it was a useful moment to move beyond some of the restrictions we had placed on ourselves.”
Oudkirk said that during her three years as director, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a particular turning point for Taiwan and for strengthening ties with the United States.
“Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian invasion has obviously played a big role in the news here, especially in 2022,” she said. “It really sparked a lot of public attention and debate about ‘What does this mean for Taiwan?’ »
Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen extended the duration of military conscription for men to one year in 2022, against four months. Taiwan has also ordered more mobile missiles and other agile weapons that could deter a Chinese attack.
“The level of strategic integration between Taiwan and the United States is the highest since the severance of diplomatic relations” in 1979, Kuo Yu-jen, professor of political science at National Sun Yat-sen University, said in southern Taiwan.
Not all Taiwanese are in favor of this strengthening of ties. Ms. Oudkirk’s years as a representative also coincided with a renewed trend of what locals call “yi-mei-lun”, skepticism about America, particularly among voters who believe Taiwan and Washington have unnecessarily antagonized Beijing.
Some of the distrust in the United States’ intentions or ability to support Taiwan reflects Chinese information operations aimed at amplifying doubts, Ms. Oudkirk said, but some of it reflects the normal ebb and flow disagreements in a democracy.
He is being asked many questions about whether the impending U.S. election could lead to a shift in American support. She remained characteristically diplomatic on this front.
“In the United States, unlike almost any other foreign policy or domestic policy issue, there is broad bipartisan consensus on policy toward Taiwan,” she told reporters at a conference farewell press conference on Friday. “So I don’t think an election would necessarily change that.”
