Latest forecasts indicate no recessionSecond Quarter Immediate Forecast Raised (GDPNow, New York Federal Reserve), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates are increasing and NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators show positive growth.
Figure 1: Early benchmark nonfarm payrolls (NFP) index (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing output (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and business sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log-normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Federal ReserveFederal Reserve via FRED, third publication of the BEA 2024Q1, S&P Global Markets Insights (née Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/(version 2024) and author’s calculations.
Note that the adjusted series on civilian employment flattens because immigration is assumed to match what is incorporated into the BLS series from July 2023 onwards.
Compare with NBER BCDC indicators.
Figure 2: CES Nonfarm Employment (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log-normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 Third Release, S&P Global Markets Insights (née Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/(version 2024) and author’s calculations.
