The survey indicates median growth of 2.0% q4/q4, close to June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May Survey of Professional Forecasters median (blue), FT-Booth School implied (beige square), Economic Projections Survey/FOMC, June median implied (light green x), GDPNow of June 7 implicit (sky blue square), all in billions of Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q1 2nd version, Philadelphia Fed, Booth School Investigation, Federal Reserve Board, Atlanta Fedand the author’s calculations.
While the median is 2.0% in Q4/4 2024, the 10th/90th percentile range is 1.8% to 2.7%. I was much darker, with a median of 1.8% (0.8% to 2.5%). The central tendency for SEP (removing the bottom 3 and top 3) is 1.9% to 2.3%, the range (all answers) is 1.4% to 2.7%.
The modal response to the start of the recession is now in Q1 2026 or later, compared to March (see here).
Source: FT-Booth School survey (June 2024).
The probability of a recession starting in 2024 fell from 18% in March to 12% in May, while the modal forecast for the first quarter of 2026 or later rose from 46% to 52%. Again, I am more gloomy in the short term, with a 40% probability in 2024, reflecting the implications of the term spread (but keeping in mind the debt service ratio).
FT article here.
