All have a positive gradient in the first trimester.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (beige) and GDP+ (sky blue), all in billions of Ch.2017$ SAAR. PIB, GDO based on 2nd version. The small %s on the right represent the SAAR growth rates in the first quarter. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fedauthor’s calculations.
Note that the GDO for Q4 2023 is revised downward, while my estimate for GDO for Q1 2024 was too low (see this job); the GDO level is 0.2 ppt above what I guessed.
Final sales, a measure of overall demand, increased 1.7% q/q SAAR.
