On June 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol issued a recent geophysical survey suggesting significant natural gas and oil deposits off Yeongil Bay in Pohang. The presidential office said the oil and gas reserves reported by ActGeo of the United States at the end of last year are estimated at at least 3.5 billion barrels and up to 14 billion barrels. Gas reserves are estimated between a minimum of 320 million tonnes and a maximum of 1.29 billion tonnes, while oil reserves are estimated between a minimum of 780 million barrels and a maximum of 4.22 billion tonnes. barrels. This is indeed an important opportunity for South Korea to strengthen its energy security and self-sufficiency rate, given its heavy dependence on oil imports And 19% energy self-sufficiency rate.
However, this abrupt announcement provoked political backlash. THE opposition parties thought the Yoon administration was trying to turn a new corner amid its record high 21% approval rate, with his political controversy regarding the investigation into the death of a young sailor. Others said the issue needs to be approached with caution, given the low success rate of drilling, which is around 20 percent, and the history of failures in the past. THE oil discovery in Yeongil Bay ” was first announced by President Park Chung-hee on January 15, 1976. The people, who had recently suffered from the first oil shock (1973-1974), hoped that the dream of becoming an oil-producing country would come true . . However, after a year it was found to be economically unviable and development was halted. At the same time, the expected cost of drilling alone exceeds 500 billion KRW, indicating that the government must not be satisfied with this opportunity and prepare a plan B to strengthen its energy portfolio.
In 1974, South Korea and Japan signed a agreement jointly develop all of Block 7 and parts of Blocks 4, 5 and 6, designating them as a Joint Development Zone (JDZ). This agreement, in force since 1978, is approaching a critical turning point in June next year, when it will either be extended or terminated. The agreement’s validity for 50 years allows either party to declare its termination three years before its expiration in June 2028. The impending expiration of the JDZ agreement with Japan presents a crucial consideration. By strategically approaching both domestic exploration and this international energy deal, South Korea can secure a stronger, more secure, and more self-sufficient energy future, thereby mitigating the risks associated with reliance on opportunity unique and uncertain.
The landscape of international law has evolved significantly in Japan’s favor since the signing of the agreement. Initially, the extended continental shelf‘theory or principle The principle of “natural continuation” has been widely recognized, allowing South Korea to claim jurisdiction over Block 7 despite its location near the Japanese Okinawa Trough. However, the 1980s saw the rise of ‘distance criterion“, which grants complete rights to the continental shelf within 200 nautical miles of a country’s coastline, as highlighted in Libya-Malta decision. This change strengthened Japan’s claims to the area closest to its shores. Furthermore, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, adopted in 1982, established the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extending up to 200 nautical miles from a country’s territorial baseline, recognizing the exclusive rights of the nation concerned.
Leveraging the “lack of economic viability” argument, Japan has become more passive in joint development efforts with South Korea. Recently, Japan has shown a strong tendency to either terminate the agreement given its upcoming expiration date or renegotiate it to its national advantage. In February, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa noted during the parliamentary session, Japan plans to respond appropriately by comprehensively assessing various circumstances, including the possibility of renegotiation. She suggested that defining borders, in accordance with UN maritime law and international precedent, would be a fair solution. If development rights are adjusted based on Japan’s proposed midline, most of the jurisdiction of Block 7, which is closer to Japan, would likely fall under Japanese control.
Renegotiating the terms of the JDZ before the expiration date to avoid its expiration is crucial not only as a plan to safeguard the recent discovery, but also from a political and diplomatic point of view. On the political level, many opposition parties, which recently won the legislative elections, are skeptical about the recent announcement of oil reserves, showing reluctance to hasty conclusions and early celebrations. Proposing a feasible alternative, such as extending the JDZ agreement rather than relying solely on the recent discovery, will allow the Yoon administration to demonstrate its commitment to strengthening energy security and protecting Korea’s national interests , thus proving that the announcement was not just a simple political demonstration.
At the same time, Korean opposition parties are unlikely to allow Japan to unilaterally claim this region, given their strong position on prioritizing national interests in Korea-Japan relations and territorial disputes. While there may be cacophony over the details of negotiations between the administration and opposition parties, no party would object to South Korea’s active negotiations and commitment to extending the deal for its security and national interests. This is expected to be a bipartisan effort by the Yoon administration, reflecting a unified commitment to national interests and energy security.
Strategically, the period when the Yoon and Kishida administrations are in power represents an optimal time to negotiate and extend the JDZ agreement. Both nations worked to settle historical disputes and strengthen their ties as strategic partners for stability and peace in Northeast Asia. The extension of the JDZ agreement will further institutionalize their cooperation in various areas. If the JDZ expires amid continued improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan, any attempt by Japan to claim unilateral access to Block 7 could significantly harm bilateral relations. Additionally, it could pose a burden for the United States, which seeks to strengthen trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan to counter China’s influence. Such actions may not align with Japan’s long-term interests, especially in the context of its free and open Indo-Pacific strategy and expanding maritime security.
Another diplomatic factor is the common interest in counteracting the rise of Chinese influence near the territories of South Korea and Japan. Since the signing of the Japan-South Korea joint development agreement, China has claims that a significant part of Block 7 in the East China Sea extends from its continental shelf. China was actively develop resources in the East China Sea, by exploiting the Pinghu oil field and continuing the development of the Longjing gas field, in the southwest part of Block 7. The dissolution of the Japan-South Korea joint cooperation framework, which served to curb China’s expansion, could create a power vacuum that China could exploit, similar to its actions in the South China Sea. This could lead to unilateral development and increased Chinese influence in the region.
Additionally, growing tensions between Japan and South Korea could escalate the dispute over Block 7 jurisdiction, potentially turning it into a competitive battleground for resource development between China, Japan and South Korea . This raises concerns that Block 7 could become a new conflict point, demonstrating that maintaining the JDZ is a common national interest for Japan and South Korea to maintain a rules-based order and meet their demands. long-term strategic interests.
The current geopolitical landscape presents a unique and timely opportunity for South Korea and Japan to extend the Joint Development Zone (JDZ) agreement. The recent geophysical survey offshore Yeongil Bay highlights the potential for significant energy resources, which could enhance South Korea’s energy security and self-sufficiency, while carrying risks given the low success rate of drilling and historical precedents of economic inviability. The renegotiation and extension of the JDZ agreement is not only a practical backup plan for the recent discovery of reserves, but also a strategic move that addresses political skepticism and strengthens diplomatic influence in favor of South Korea . A unified, bipartisan approach to expanding the JDZ will strengthen cooperation between South Korea and Japan to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region and ensure regional stability. This is in line with the long-term interests of both nations and contributes to regional stability and peace.
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