Atlanta and New York Feds cut growth rates in second quarter
Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (light blue square), New York Fed (pink triangle), May median from the survey of professional forecasters (light green line), all in billions of dollars Ch. 2017, SAAR. Source: BEA (2nd version of 1st quarter 2024), Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fedand the author’s calculations.
To start, the implied level using GDPNow is lower than the May SPF, due to a downward revision to Q1 GDP and a slowdown in forecast growth in the near term.
The downward movement in nowcasts is pronounced. Consider GDPNow.
Source: Atlanta Fedaccessed June 3, 2024.
The downside surprise on Construction and Manufacturing ISM was the main driver – from 2.7% to 1.8% q/q SAAR in GDPNow. In comparison, Goldman Sachs’ tracking was down just 0.1 points.
That being said, no recession is yet apparent in the second quarter nowcast. Neither in the monthly indicators for April (see here).
