Barbara Plett-Usher,BBC Africa Correspondent
Mavuso Msimang read the writing on the wall last year and now the people of South Africa have confirmed what they saw.
The African National Congress (ANC) veteran resigned from the party in December after 66 years, citing endemic corruption and warning that the ANC was on the “verge of losing power”.
The party lost the position of unrivaled political power it had held since the end of apartheid 30 years ago, with a sharp decline in its support.
As South Africans digest a pivotal moment in their history, they reflect on what it meant for the ancient liberation movement and what it means for the country’s future.
“I think we can all agree that it’s time for change,” says Lerato Setsiba, a computer science student at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.
“But I think for the majority of people, right now, we’re pretty scared…we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
The past
Mr Msimang’s house is furnished with tributes to the iconic former ANC leader: a life-size painting of Nelson Mandela and a beautiful book bearing his name.
Mr Msimang served in the ANC’s armed wing, uMkhonto weSizwe, in the 1960s and was appointed to several government posts after the 1994 elections that brought the movement to power.
He is now vice-president of the ANC Veterans’ League, which lobbies strongly for action against corruption within the party’s ranks.
“There has always been a tendency not to address issues of accountability,” he says, but the resulting economic mismanagement “affected people very directly.”
“When I saw these long queues (of voters) which almost look like what happened in 1994, I didn’t think they were queuing to celebrate the ANC. It became very clear to me that something bad was going to happen. »
“I’m very disappointed,” he told me. “I don’t know how the legacy of the ANC will be recovered. I hope it’s not forever.
Many older voters who remember the horrors of apartheid have remained loyal to this “legacy of liberation” – the major role played by the ANC in overthrowing white minority rule.
They also remember his progressive welfare policies that lifted millions of black families into the middle class and extended basic services such as water, electricity and welfare to millions more.
But the party began to attract people interested in power and political patronage.
Its downfall began in earnest under former president Jacob Zuma, who resigned in disgrace following allegations he allowed business associates to infiltrate government ministries. He denies the allegations.
Mr Zuma was replaced by Cyril Ramaphosa, accused of failing to take strong enough action to root out corruption within the party.
However, Mr Msimang has not abandoned the ANC. He was convinced by his fellow veterans to join the party.
“I don’t think all is lost. It’s time for the ANC to regroup,” says Mr Msimang.
“But the revival of the ANC would be about ensuring that truly corrupt elements are removed from the organization. We really failed to act decisively to achieve this…we failed to heed the calls of the people.”
Mr. Msimang is nevertheless concerned about the absence of a strong alternative to the party: “There is this fragmentation, which will leave the country very unstable if this persists. »
The present
At the Election Results Center near Johannesburg, numbers are displayed on a dashboard that tracks the vote count.
Its giant screen dominates a room full of journalists, party officials and analysts like Susan Booysen. She found a quiet place to talk to me.
The subject is coalition politics, something South Africa has not experienced at the national level for two decades. Although the ANC remains by far the largest party, it will need to share power to continue to govern.
The political landscape is delicate and fraught with consequences because the main parties have different visions of the country.
The business-friendly Democratic Alliance is not an easy choice because of its free-market agenda and reputation as a party friendly to the white community and other minority groups.
The next two largest parties belong to the radical left, Mr Zuma’s new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) – a name he adopted from the ANC’s paramilitary wing – and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF ). They talk about seizing white-owned land and nationalizing mines and banks.
The ANC views the EFF as “too erratic in its direction, too visible and too unreasonable in its policy demands”, says Ms Booysen.
And there are too many “disagreements” between the ANC and MK, who has said he will not partner with the ANC as long as Mr Ramaphosa remains its leader.
Ousting Mr Ramaphosa is “the main objective of the MK party at this stage, and the ANC is collateral damage in this process as far as it is concerned”, she says.
The return of Mr. Zuma, despite a decade of endemic corruption at the head of the country, has added a wild card to the situation. He burst into the convention center Saturday night to level allegations of election fraud.
The outcome of what is expected to be turbulent coalition negotiations could decide between two very different directions for South Africa.
The future
On the campus of Wits University in Johannesburg, a troupe of student actors perform a pop-up parody of the election.
People came to vote here in large numbers – many of them, like medical student Nobuhle Khumalo, for the first time.
She’s excited about the change but doesn’t know what it means: “We’re just going to see what it looks like as it unfolds.” »
We chat on the grounds in front of the library with two of his friends, Mr. Setsiba and music student Silka Graetz.
They hope a coalition government will bring more accountability and transparency, but fear it could lead to greater political instability and dysfunction.
“I think increasing votes with other parties definitely creates healthy competition,” Ms. Graetz says.
“And I think with healthy competition comes better service, just improvement in many different areas.”
Young people, many of whom had not experienced apartheid, were more willing than their parents to abandon the ANC, motivated by their concerns about their future.
Some 45% of South African youth are unemployed, the highest rate recorded in the world.
“During the campaign, you don’t talk about issues that concern young people,” says Mr. Setsiba, criticizing government budget cuts to education in recent years.
“Fund into universities, boost entrepreneurship, and make it a thriving country for new businesses!” »
Graetz warns that it will be important to restore investor confidence in the country to improve the economy.
She and Mr. Setsiba are preparing to graduate, so entering the job market is a priority for them.
Ms. Graetz is perfectly aware that her future will take shape in the next four or five years, the period before the next elections.
“The only question I have is, ‘How long do we have to wait to see something (change)?'” she said. “I think there’s been a big change in attitude How much longer until this is implemented?
It took 30 years for the ANC to be held accountable for its failures. South Africa’s younger generation is not prepared to wait that long.