The far-right Alternative for Germany party was poised for a record year.
Not long ago, the party, known as AfD, was polling nearly 25 percent of the vote in nationwide polls. As the elections approach the European Parliament and in three eastern states – its traditional stronghold – the party seemed poised to achieve its main goal: moving from the margins to the mainstream.
Suddenly, the party’s future seems murkier. It remains relatively high – it is the second most popular party in the country. But recently, as members have been caught up in espionage and influence peddling, secret discussions on the expulsion of immigrants and controversies over extreme statementsthe AfD faced an increasingly strong backlash, threatening the advances it had made into the mainstream.
The constant drumbeat of missteps and scandals has forced the party, already officially labeled a “suspected” extremist group by German authorities, to sideline even some senior members and prompted far-right counterparts abroad to avoid.
“This week that is behind us has not been a good week,” declared Alice Weidel, one of the two party leaders, during a campaign stop on May 25.
The AfD is feeling the consequences. Last weekend’s local elections in the eastern state of Thuringia did not produce the resounding mandate hoped for, although they still ended strongly.
Now, about a week before the start of the European Parliament elections, the party’s prospects look a little shakier. Yet he is still likely to win more seats in the European Parliament and national elections than before, polls suggest.
“Some of those who had already switched to the AfD have changed their minds,” said Manfred Güllner, director of the Forsa Institute, a political polling agency. “But the radical right-wing core will not disappear.”
Perhaps a sign that the AfD camel cannot carry many straws, the party last week censored its own camel, removing its two main candidates for the European Parliament elections from the campaign trail, without however withdraw from competition.
One of them, Maximilian Krah, recently gave an interview to the Financial Times and the Italian daily The Republic, in which he expressed his belief that not all members of the SS, the Nazi paramilitary force, were necessarily criminals. The other, Petr Bystron, is under investigation for receiving money from Russia.
Mr. Krah declined to comment for this article. Mr. Bystron did not respond to a request for comment.
Even in a party known for its mischievous members who refuse to fall in line, the last few months have been full of them.
Before his remarks, Mr. Krah had already been in the headlines for weeks after the arrest of his aide on suspicion of spying for China and the search of his own offices, a searing upgrade for a party that is presents itself as anti-corruption and hypernationalist.
In May, AfD leader in Thuringia Björn Höcke was fined 13,000 euros, or about $14,000, for using a banned Nazi slogan in a 2021 speech.
But perhaps the most significant airing of party laundry took place in January, after was revealed that members of the AfD had participated in a meeting during which the mass expulsion of immigrants – including naturalized citizens – was discussed.
The news has started months of mass protests by millions against the AfD throughout the country. Current polls suggest Support for the party nationally has declined, hovering between 14 and 17 percent, according to some estimates, after a peak of around 23 percent last December.
Hoping to regain momentum, the party finds itself on something of a strategic tightrope, said Benjamin Höhne, a professor at Chemnitz University of Technology.
He must appease an extremist core while broadening his appeal to center-right voters if he is ever to expand his influence beyond his regional strongholds and achieve real power.
“This is a standardization strategy,” said Höhne. “Trying to create an appeal in the middle of society, but not leaving the right stigmatized in a corner.”
The path has become even narrower as former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, has shifted to the right, potentially drawing voters away from the AfD.
In addition, a new party — the Sahra Wagenknecht This movement, which mixes populism and far-left politics, can also pose a threat.
It’s a difficult situation that some AfD members bristle at. “The CDU now presents itself as a solution to the problems it created,” said Stephan Brandner, a senior AfD federal lawmaker.
Perhaps the most vulnerable part of support for the AfD is among voters who had turned to the party for the first time – drawn by their dissatisfaction with the government, or perhaps to vote in protest – and who are now put off by the noise of the scandal.
“This part of the electorate is now the one the AfD leadership is fighting for,” said Johannes Hillje, a German political scientist who studies the AfD. “They must be able to mobilize much more than the far-right.”
In Bavaria, where the party had made progress, Andreas Jurca, AfD member of the State House, says he is now seeing a retraction. In recent months, he said, about 10 percent of new party candidates in his region have withdrawn their candidacy.
“Last year we kind of managed to move into the middle class,” he said. “Now their problem wasn’t our positions; it’s that we have somehow become outcasts.
Last weekend’s elections in Thuringia offered a mixed picture for the future of the AfD. The party fared worse than expected in important seats, such as town halls and district chiefs, receiving 26 percent of the vote, behind the CDU’s 27 percent.
But he won a majority of seats in a number of municipal councils, a change that could have implications for federal elections, said Matthias Quent, a professor at the Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences who studies extreme RIGHT.
“This is a new dimension that will change local politics,” Professor Quent said. Having AfD members running daily life in Thuringia could strengthen the party’s legitimacy, with consequences for future elections. “The idea is standardization from below.”
Tatiana Firsova contributed reporting.
