Welcome to Opinion’s coverage of the guilty verdict in Donald Trump’s Manhattan trial. In this special article, Times Opinion editors reflect on this extraordinary development in American political history, the moments and dynamics that mattered most in the trial – and unpack its potential impact on the presidential election.
What mattered
Jamelle Bouie I’m not a lawyer and I haven’t followed every entry and exit of the trial, but if there was a single thing that doomed Donald Trump — or at least, if there was a single thing that hurt his efforts to escape a guilty verdict – it was his complete disregard for the process and procedures. It is difficult to imagine that his constant attacks on the judge, jury and the trial itself. The jury, obviously, is only asked to evaluate the evidence before it, and yet it asks many people to sit back and ignore the fact that the defendant has, publicly, made you an enemy.
Matthew Continetti What mattered was that this case was brought. When Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted Trump in April 2023, he not only set a dangerous precedent that local officials can bring criminal charges against former presidents, but he also annexed the campaign presidential election of 2024 to the legal system, with unknown and potentially dangerous consequences. . Bragg’s actions undermined confidence in the rule of law and rallied Republican voters behind Trump, helping him win a third consecutive Republican nomination. Bragg has not defeated Trumpism. He started it again.
David French The prosecution had a fascinating story to tell. Trump didn’t want Stormy Daniels to go public right after the “Access Hollywood” tape with evidence showing that he actually believes his celebrity gives him the right to do whatever he wants with women. And when Trump concealed the nature of the payments, the prosecution could easily argue — at least to a jury — that he must have known the payments were legally problematic. The outcome of trials is often dictated by which side can create the most coherent narrative, and the prosecution’s theory of the case was easy for the jury to understand.
Michelle Goldberg The mountain of evidence! Although much of the talk around the trial focused on Bragg’s wisdom in filing suit, the question before the court was simpler: Did Trump do what he was accused of? The prosecution demonstrated that yes. Trump’s defense, meanwhile, has made the ridiculous argument that he never had sex with Stormy Daniels and that the $420,000 paid to Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen — who was in part of the reason he went to prison – were legitimate legal fees. It would have been shocking if the jury had bought it.
Quinta Jurecic There is no way of knowing what led the jurors to reach the verdict they did. But throughout the trial, I was struck by the insistence of Trump’s lawyers on pursuing arguments or questions that seemed irrelevant to their case. Todd Blanche, for example, repeatedly insisted that Trump never slept with Stormy Daniels, even though that denial locked Trump into a weaker argument. These defense tactics seemed designed to appease Trump’s vanity and sense of resentment — but even if they made the client happy, it’s hard to imagine they helped his case in front of the jury.
Daniel McCarthy The dizzying number of charges brought and the virtual absence of dispute over the fact at the heart of the case meant the prosecution only had to lead the jury to doubt Trump’s motives. Judge Juan Merchan’s instructions were broad enough that the jury had ample opportunity to find Trump guilty, and it did so.
Kristen Soltis Anderson Focusing on winning the political battle and the communications battle over legal issues will only get you so far. The law does not necessarily care about public opinion.
Will this have an impact on the 2024 elections?
Mud I don’t know if the guilty verdict will have significant significance for the 2024 presidential election, although it’s fair to say that no presidential candidate wants to be a criminal. On the contrary, I suspect that Trump’s conviction will be part of a context of scandal that could weaken him irreparably. What I do know, however, is that the guilty verdict is another example of a fundamental truth of the Trump era: It was not institutions or guardrails that held the former president back; they are ordinary American citizens who, when given the opportunity, have not hesitated to hold him accountable.
Continetti Between now and November, we’ll be talking about something else. If we know one thing about Trump, it’s that he’s an expert at changing the subject. Most importantly, despite President Biden’s efforts to refocus the campaign on Trump’s rhetoric and conduct, the 2024 election is not about the former president. This is about the performance of the outgoing president in office. The electorate will decide Biden’s fate based on their perceptions of the economy, the southern border and America’s global standing. A guilty verdict will not lower prices, reduce border crossings or make the world a safer place.
French Yes, it will have an impact. that of Biden main weakness It’s about disconnected voters, and if there’s one piece of news that can move even the most apathetic citizens, it’s the headline “Trump Guilty on All Counts.” MAGA will of course double down on its support for Trump, and some out-of-touch voters may well believe the prosecution was political, but Trump is now a criminal, and that will matter. Don’t expect a dam burst in public opinion that would sweep Trump away, but it would erode his support, and in a close election, every bit of erosion counts.
Goldberg I guess a small one. A recent New York Times/Siena poll of voters in swing states showed that a majority did not expect a conviction, and so some may be shocked. Trump loyalists will easily rationalize voting for a felon, but if this election is as close as the last two, even small shifts among hesitant voters could be significant.
Jurecic Trump has a strong base of supporters who could be galvanized by his conviction. But they alone are not enough to win him the elections. His fate, on the other hand, will depend on voters whose support for him is less passionate — people who might otherwise vote Republican but are turned off by Trump’s crudeness. This verdict emphasizes all the aspects of Trump that might turn off these voters: Trump’s erratic behavior, his constant scandals. If this conviction hurts Trump, it will likely be because a small but significant number of people in swing states simply couldn’t bring themselves to pull the lever in favor of a criminal.
McCarthy By outraging Trump’s supporters, the verdict will strengthen him, and voters who harbor doubts about the justice system may view him as more sympathetic as a result. He is now even more marginal and rebellious. Sanctions could hamper Trump’s campaign, but I expect the race to remain competitive and become even more intense.
Soltis Anderson Perhaps this only matters at the margins. Voters who strongly dislike Trump will be happy with the verdict, but it won’t change anything; They were never going to vote for him anyway. Voters who like him won’t be surprised by a guilty verdict, because they generally viewed the trial as political from the start. I think sentencing will play a larger role in influencing the small group of convincing voters, as Americans are forced to choose whether or not to vote for someone who could face prison time.
Jamelle Bouie, David French and Michelle Goldberg are Times columnists.
Matthew Continetti is the author of “The Right: The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism.”
Quinta Jurecic is a contributing writer to The Atlantic, a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, and a senior editor at Lawfare.
Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.
Kristen Soltis Anderson is an opinion editor for The New York Times. She is a Republican pollster, speaker, commentator and author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”
