DigitalHealth.London Launchpad’s GPAL announces the launch of its predictive patient risk model that presents actionable health insights into local patient populations and automates the recall process.
Does everyone have trouble getting an appointment with a GP?
…is perhaps one of the most frequently asked questions in the UK. If there’s one problem we all have in common, it’s that none of us can get an appointment with a GP. No matter where you live or who you are, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to spend time with your family doctor.
But why is this the case? How can we fix it?
To get to the bottom of the problem, we need to answer a few key questions:
Do we have enough GP appointments to meet patient needs?
Unfortunately no. Last month, 9.7 million people missed an appointment with a GP despite more than 28 million appointments delivered. This problem is not going away anytime soon – a A third of GPs are expected to leave the profession in the next five yearswith more than one in five people likely to move abroad in the next 12 months.
Combined with a growing and aging population, these issues place even greater demands on our healthcare system.
I don’t even remember the last time I saw my GP, who are all these appointments for?
The figures show that 10% of patients occupy 40% of all appointments.
Before we try to track these people down and unplug their phones, let’s understand who they are.
These are patients with long-standing chronic illnesses (such as heart failure or diabetes), who are not only more susceptible to illness, but also require regular monitoring and checks of their condition.
However, as GPs face enormous demand pressures, they do not have the time or resources to regularly monitor or record these patients.
As a result, patients feel increasingly ill and become frequent providers, often presenting a list of problems during a time-limited appointment. This means they never come away with a complete resolution, returning and repeating the cycle.
This sounds bleak, what does the NHS have to say about all this?
The number of GPs is falling, with a net loss of 1,790 GPs since 2015.
While the government committed in 2020 to hiring an additional 6,000 new GPs by 2024 – we have barely achieved 50% of these objectives.
The NHS plans to increase the number of general practice trainees, aiming to have 6,000 trainees by 2031, an increase of 50% on the current number of trainees.
(Yes, that sounds like trying to pour more water into a leaking pipe…)
Okay, so you’re saying we need to see more patients with fewer GPs? It seems simple…
Almost. What we really need is a better model of care – proactive, preventative care for chronic patients.
With the right primary care interventions at the right time, I believe we can not only keep chronic patients well cared for in the community, but also reduce the number of appointments these frequent patients require.
Our GPAL team is focused on this goal: we want to understand what is the right appointment for the right patient at the right time in order to have the greatest impact on their health and the least impact on practice demand .
Our product presents actionable health insights for local patient populations and helps get them to the right appointment quickly, by automating the reminder process.
We built a predictive patient risk model based on the latest advances in machine learning and causal inference, to help us accurately predict who needs help and when. Our demand forecasting capabilities allow us to predict demand patterns in GP practices and plan accordingly.
Starting with incentivized interventions (e.g., QOFs), we will understand how to prioritize and schedule these appointments to have the greatest impact on patient care and the least amount of practice demand. Helping GP practices to better manage their chronic patients will allow us to reduce the average number of visits to GPs, thereby reducing overall demand and waiting times.
At GPAL, we are about to begin testing our revolutionary solution in leading GP practices across the UK. To help us achieve our vision, we are looking for innovative GPs and practice leaders to help us improve our product.
If you would like insight, want to get involved, or even if you completely disagree with anything written here, contact Qasim Ali at hello@gpal.ai – I’m interested to hear your thoughts!
Together we can revitalize primary care and keep people happier and healthier at home!
The DigitalHealth.London Launchpad program is funded by the UK Government through the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF). It is delivered by the Health Innovation Network (HIN) South London in partnership with the Office of Life Sciences, CW+, Medicity, NHS England, the Mayor of London and the Leveling Up Fund.
For more information, please visit https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-
Shared Prosperity Fund prospectus.
