A few days after his return from a trip to Europe where he was gave a lecture on the need to subdue RussiaChinese leader Xi Jinping used a summit with President Vladimir V. Putin to convey an uncomfortable reality to the West: His support for Mr. Putin remains unwavering.
Mr. Xi’s talks with Mr. Putin this week were a show of solidarity between two autocrats fighting against Western pressure. The two leaders issued a lengthy statement denouncing what they see as U.S. interference and intimidation and outlined their alignment with China’s claim to Taiwan’s autonomy and Russia’s “legitimate security interests.” in Ukraine.
They pledged to expand their economic and military ties, as highlighted Mr Putin’s visit at a leading Chinese defense research institute. Mr. Xi even launched a cheek to cheek hug as he bid farewell to Mr Putin on Thursday after an evening stroll through the Chinese Communist Party leadership compound in Beijing.
Western leaders looking for signs of a significant divergence between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, particularly over the war in Ukraine, would find none. Neither the risk of alienating Europe, a key trading partner needed to help revive China’s ailing economy, nor the threat of US sanctions targeting Chinese banks supporting Russia’s war effort appear to have deterred Mr. Xi to adopt Mr. Putin.
“The overarching goal of Putin and Xi is to fight what they perceive as their existential enemy, namely the United States and the U.S.-led international order,” said Alicja Bachulska, expert on Chinese foreign policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations. For China, “yes, there are tensions with the West, but these tensions will not lead to any qualitative change in the way China approaches Russia and the war in Ukraine.”
In other words, analysts say, Mr. Xi has already priced in potential sanctions and tariffs as an acceptable cost for his strategic partnership with Russia. For Mr. Xi, Mr. Putin is an indispensable friend who is helping to reshape the world order in China’s favor. And the more Washington opposes it – including on trade issues such as latest prices on Chinese electric vehicles – the more Mr. Xi feels validated in his choices.
“Moscow’s strategic value to Xi is only growing stronger as geopolitical competition with the United States intensifies,” said Jude BlanchetteChina expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
What is paramount to Mr Xi and Mr Putin is what they call the “democratization of international relations” – essentially the erosion of US dominance and the empowerment of non-aligned countries and rogue states to that they unite around their common grievances against the West.
Their joint statement this week laid out their vision for a new world order. This was a situation in which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or America’s security alliances in Asia would not interfere with its territorial claims to Ukraine or Taiwan; the United States would not be able to intimidate other countries with sanctions because the dollar would no longer be the world’s reserve currency for trade; and autocracies would have the right to govern “on their own national terms,” unfettered by universal values such as human rights and social equality.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified this attempt to remake the world. The war emerged as a way for an axis of anti-Western countries to retaliate against the United States and its allies. Russia’s war machine is bolstered by Chinese semiconductors and other dual-use technologies; by North Korean missiles and shells; and by Iranian drones. The war provided an opportunity for Russia, China, North Korea and Iran to deepen their military coordination and evade sanctions by facilitating trade beyond the reach of the financial system run by United States. This could prove useful in any future conflict with the United States.
Mr. Xi may have had “questions and concerns» from the start of the war in Ukraine, when it became clear that Russia would not achieve a quick and decisive victory. He bristled when Mr. Putin alluded to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, a red line for China. And he had the difficult – and, some say, contradictory – task of trying to make China neutral in the war in order to maintain stable ties with the West, while continuing to align with Moscow.
But the tide could be turning for Mr. Xi. Russian forces are make progress around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, gaining momentum before Ukrainian forces could be resupplied with billions of dollars of weapons from the United States. Ukrainian and American officials have warned of dire consequences if Ukrainian forces continue to be under-equipped in men and weapons.
“The more the war in Ukraine turns in Moscow’s direction, the more Xi sees China’s support for Russia as validated,” Mr. Blanchette said.
Meanwhile, the threat of European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, a major concern for Beijing, may have eased this week after Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, and Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish prime minister, have warned against following the United States in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Chinese automobiles. Mr Kristersson said it was “wrong to dismantle global trade”, highlighting divisions within Europe over how to deal with China.
“The idea of economic retaliation against China is very frightening to many European decision-makers,” said Bachulska of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “There is certainly a mindset shift developing in European capitals that China is a strategic rival, but that does not necessarily translate into political capacity or will to act.”
Mr. Xi’s seemingly ironclad support for Mr. Putin, no matter what it might cost China in its relations with the West, shows how his focus on building an authoritarian partnership to counter the American economic and ideological power has eclipsed China’s growth agenda, analysts say. . This could be a serious and short-sighted miscalculation.
“Xi thinks this is good trade for China. He trades a United States that he cannot control for an isolated and declining Russia that he can control. » wrote Michael Schuman, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“The problem is that Xi is exchanging ties with a twenty-five thousand billion dollars economy with the advanced technology that China needs for a two trillion dollars an economy that is little more than a gas station,” he added. “It’s not a good deal.”
For the partnership to remain strong, Mr. Putin will need to stay in power and avoid a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. Mr. Xi will likely do everything he can to support Mr. Putin, but he will ultimately be guided only by China’s best interests.
Natasha Kuhrt, a security expert at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, said Mr. Xi was preparing for all outcomes in Ukraine. If Russia wins, it will offer to help rebuild Ukraine, as outlined in China’s 12-point peace proposal last year, a document widely rejected in the West because it lacks sincerity and focus solely on the protection of Russian interests.
But if Russia loses, Mr. Xi will have to distance himself from Mr. Putin to avoid harming China’s global status.
“Whatever happens, China will try to ensure that it is in pole position,” Kuhrt said. “If it looks like Russia is about to be defeated, China will put some distance between itself and Moscow. He doesn’t want to be chained to a corpse.
Olivia Wang contributed to the research.
